The Prediction Markets

Who will Trump meet with by November 30?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$474K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
44 min ago
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What the markets expect

Dividend / Stimulus 99%

Next is E15 at 99%. The venues differ most on Mohammed bin Salman (Polymarket 8%, Kalshi 80%), a 72-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 44 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Dividend / Stimulus
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 44 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Dividend / Stimulus
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
E15
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 44 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
E15
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Eli Lilly
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 44 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Eli Lilly
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 44 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
UFC
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 44 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
UFC
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Filibuster
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 44 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Filibuster
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Xi Jinping
94.7%
Polymarket 94.7%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xi Jinping
Last price
94.7%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
94.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bongbong Marcos
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bongbong Marcos
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$921
Trade this on Kalshi
Zohran Mamdani
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zohran / Mamdani
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$543
Trade this on Kalshi
Aluminum
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aluminum
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$86
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 39 more outcomes
Vladimir Putin
86.1%
Polymarket 89.5%polled, 44 min agoKalshi 85%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vladimir Putin
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vladimir Putin
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$56K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 44 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 86¢ and selling on Polymarket at 89¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Ceasefire
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ceasefire
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$233
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Carney
72%
Polymarket 72%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Carney
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rare Earth
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rare Earth
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Kalshi
TrumpRx
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
TrumpRx
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Kalshi
Nvidia
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$623
Trade this on Kalshi
Autism
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Autism
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$222
Trade this on Kalshi
Ozempic / GLP-1
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ozempic / GLP-1
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$262
Trade this on Kalshi
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
55.6%
Polymarket 55.6%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 92.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Last price
55.6%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
92.9¢
Sell Yes
18.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Refinance / Refinanced / Refinancing
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Refinance / Refinanced / Refinancing
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$271
Trade this on Kalshi
Whistleblower
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Whistleblower
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$233
Trade this on Kalshi
Mohammed bin Salman
41.2%
Polymarket 8%polled, 44 min agoKalshi 80%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mohammed bin Salman
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mohammed bin Salman
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 44 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 80¢ nets 7100 bps before fees.

Golden Dome
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Golden Dome
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$351
Trade this on Kalshi
SMR / Small Modular Reactor
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
SMR / Small Modular Reactor
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$166
Trade this on Kalshi
Elon Musk
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stablecoin
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stablecoin
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
Peter Thiel
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peter Thiel
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sam Altman
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Altman
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dario Amodei
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dario Amodei
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Manufactured Housing
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Manufactured Housing
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$186
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavin Newsom
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Abelardo de la Espriella
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abelardo de la Espriella
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peptide
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peptide
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$679
Trade this on Kalshi
Tim Walz
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Walz
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Andy Burnham
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andy Burnham
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marjorie Taylor Greene
8.4%
Kalshi 8.4%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kim Jong Un
6.7%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 44 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kim Jong Un
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kim Jong Un
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 44 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 3.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 8¢ nets 440 bps before fees.

Benjamin Netanyahu
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lai Ching-te
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lai Ching-te
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Javier Milei
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Milei
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pope Leo XIV
5.4%
Kalshi 5.4%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pope Leo XIV
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jerome Powell
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jerome Powell
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Reza Pahlavi
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reza Pahlavi
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Giorgia Meloni
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Giorgia Meloni
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicolás Maduro
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicolás Maduro
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
Joseph Aoun
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joseph Aoun
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bill Clinton
1.9%
Kalshi 1.9%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bill Clinton
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Miguel Díaz-Canel
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miguel Díaz-Canel
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$662
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 44 min old: Mohammed bin Salman asks 9¢ on Polymarket and bids 80¢ on Kalshi (7100 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 2:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC News, Associated Press, Bloomberg
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 2:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Dividend / Stimulus
  • E15
  • Eli Lilly

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Dividend / Stimulus for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will Trump meet with by November 30?". Dividend / Stimulus leads at 99%. Next is E15 at 99%. $474K has traded across 49 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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