The Prediction Markets

Who will Trump name in April?

FinalKickoff
Traded
$121K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 30, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 176 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Elon / Musk
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 4226 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon / Musk
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$539
Trade this on Polymarket
Machado
13.4%
Polymarket 13.4%polled, 4226 h agoBest Yes 26.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $375 (3.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Machado
Last price
13.4%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
26.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$375 (3.75x)
Volume
$889
Trade this on Polymarket
Massie
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 4226 h agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Massie
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Paxton
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 4226 h agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paxton
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Homan
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 4226 h agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Homan
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Delcy
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 4226 h agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Delcy
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$809
Trade this on Polymarket
Rand Paul
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 4226 h agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rand Paul
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Leavitt
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 4226 h agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Leavitt
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Zohran / Mamdani
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 4226 h agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zohran / Mamdani
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Friedrich / Merz
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 4226 h agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Friedrich / Merz
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 5 more outcomes
Talarico
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4226 h agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Talarico
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bernie
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 4226 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bernie
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$962
Trade this on Polymarket
Bolsonaro
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4226 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bolsonaro
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kavanaugh
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4226 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kavanaugh
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$772
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicki / Minaj
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4226 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicki / Minaj
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Elon / Musk
  • Machado
  • Massie

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Who will Trump name in April?". Elon / Musk last traded at 21.5%. Next is Machado at 13.4%. $121K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 30, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed name between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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