The Prediction Markets

Who will Trump publicly insult by April 30?

Closed
Apr 30, 2026
Traded
$355K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 30, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 176 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Megyn Kelly
38.1%
Polymarket 45%(38.1% fair)polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Megyn Kelly
Last price
45%
Fair, margin removed
38.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$724
Trade this on Polymarket
Alex Jones
32.6%
Polymarket 38.5%(32.6% fair)polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex Jones
Last price
38.5%
Fair, margin removed
32.6%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$482
Trade this on Polymarket
Zohran Mamdani
16.1%
Polymarket 19%(16.1% fair)polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 37.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $265 (2.65x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zohran Mamdani
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
16.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
37.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$265 (2.65x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marjorie Taylor Greene
5.5%
Polymarket 6.5%(5.5% fair)polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
6.5%
Fair, margin removed
5.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pope Leo XIV
2.2%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pope Leo XIV
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tucker Carlson
1.6%
Polymarket 2%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Viktor Orbán
1.1%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Viktor Orbán
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Keir Starmer
0.8%
Polymarket 1%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keir Starmer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elon Musk
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Benjamin Netanyahu
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 5 more outcomes
J.D. Vance
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pam Bondi
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pam Bondi
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vladimir Putin
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vladimir Putin
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Xi Jinping
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xi Jinping
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Melania Trump
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4228 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Melania Trump
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Megyn Kelly
  • Alex Jones
  • Zohran Mamdani

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Who will Trump publicly insult by April 30?". Megyn Kelly last traded at 38.1%. Next is Alex Jones at 32.6%. $355K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 30, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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