The Prediction Markets

Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?

Closed
May 31, 2026
Traded
$104K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Marjorie Taylor Greene
65.5%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Keir Starmer
64%
Polymarket 64%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keir Starmer
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicolás Maduro
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicolás Maduro
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tucker Carlson
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Freidrich Merz
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Freidrich Merz
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Megyn Kelly
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Megyn Kelly
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Zohran Mamdani
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zohran Mamdani
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kaitlan Collins
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kaitlan Collins
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$262
Trade this on Polymarket
Keir Starmer
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keir Starmer
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alex Jones
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex Jones
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$87
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
Emmanuel Macron
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Emmanuel Macron
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$537
Trade this on Polymarket
Pam Bondi
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pam Bondi
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$460
Trade this on Polymarket
Mohammed bin Salman
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mohammed bin Salman
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$130
Trade this on Polymarket
Pope Leo XIV
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pope Leo XIV
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Benjamin Netanyahu
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$452
Trade this on Polymarket
Elon Musk
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vladimir Putin
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vladimir Putin
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Xi Jinping
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xi Jinping
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
J.D. Vance
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Viktor Orbán
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Viktor Orbán
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Melania Trump
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Melania Trump
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Marjorie Taylor Greene
  • Keir Starmer
  • Nicolás Maduro

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?". Marjorie Taylor Greene last traded at 65.5%. Next is Keir Starmer at 64%. $104K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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