The Prediction Markets

Who will Trump speak to by November 30?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$319K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
45 min ago
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What the markets expect

Germany / German 99.5%

Next is Mexico / Mexican at 99.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 45 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Germany / German
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Germany / German
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Mexico / Mexican
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Mexico / Mexican
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Saudi Arabia / Saudi Arabian
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Saudi Arabia / Saudi Arabian
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
South Korea / South Korean
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
South Korea / South Korean
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Afghanistan / Afghan
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Afghanistan / Afghan
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Apple / AAPL
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Apple / AAPL
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Congo / Congolese
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Congo / Congolese
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$442
Trade this on Kalshi
Cuba / Cuban
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Cuba / Cuban
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
73¢
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
Denmark / Danish
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Denmark / Danish
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$435
Trade this on Kalshi
Dividend / Stimulus
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Dividend / Stimulus
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 118 more outcomes
E15
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
E15
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Eli Lilly
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Eli Lilly
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Eli Lilly / LLY
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Eli Lilly / LLY
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fox News
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Fox News
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
France / French
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
France / French
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
General Motors / GM
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
General Motors / GM
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
89¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Japan / Japanese
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Japan / Japanese
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pfizer / PFE
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Pfizer / PFE
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Poland / Polish
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Poland / Polish
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
82¢
Volume
$68
Trade this on Kalshi
Somalia / Somali
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Somalia / Somali
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$240
Trade this on Kalshi
UFC
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
UFC
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
X / Twitter
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
X / Twitter
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Colombia / Colombian
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Colombia / Colombian
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
79¢
Volume
$80
Trade this on Kalshi
Egypt / Egyptian
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Egypt / Egyptian
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Filibuster
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Filibuster
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
North Korea / North Korean
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
North Korea / North Korean
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
72¢
Volume
$57
Trade this on Kalshi
Uber
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Uber
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
93¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Italy / Italian
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Italy / Italian
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Spain / Spanish
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spain / Spanish
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Xi Jinping
95.6%
Polymarket 95.6%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 98.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xi Jinping
Last price
95.6%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
98.1¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
SpaceX / SPCX
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
SpaceX / SPCX
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yemen / Yemeni
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yemen / Yemeni
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Carney
92.9%
Polymarket 92.9%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 94.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Carney
Last price
92.9%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
94.1¢
Sell Yes
91.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vladimir Putin
92%
Polymarket 92%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vladimir Putin
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hyundai / HYMTF
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hyundai / HYMTF
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Kalshi
Zohran / Mamdani
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zohran / Mamdani
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$543
Trade this on Kalshi
Aluminum
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aluminum
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$86
Trade this on Kalshi
India / Indian
87.5%
Kalshi 87.5%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
India / Indian
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
75¢
Trade this on Kalshi
United Kingdom / British
87.5%
Kalshi 87.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
United Kingdom / British
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Qatar / Qatari
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 45 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Qatar / Qatari
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
74¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Ceasefire
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ceasefire
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$233
Trade this on Kalshi
Norway / Norwegian
85.5%
Kalshi 85.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Norway / Norwegian
Last price
85.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brazil / Brazilian
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brazil / Brazilian
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$67
Trade this on Kalshi
Ireland / Irish
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ireland / Irish
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
MS NOW / MSNBC
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
MS NOW / MSNBC
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Argentina / Argentinian
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Argentina / Argentinian
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Kalshi
Australia / Australian
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Australia / Australian
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$76
Trade this on Kalshi
UAE / United Arab Emirates
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
UAE / United Arab Emirates
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
Mohammed bin Salman
82.5%
Polymarket 82.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mohammed bin Salman
Last price
82.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
TikTok
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
TikTok
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Kalshi
Turkey / Turkish
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Turkey / Turkish
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Taiwan / Taiwanese
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taiwan / Taiwanese
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
ExxonMobil / XOM
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
ExxonMobil / XOM
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$151
Trade this on Kalshi
Meta
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meta
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Kalshi
Amazon / AMZN
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amazon / AMZN
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Nvidia / NVDA
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nvidia / NVDA
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Palestine / Palestinian
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Palestine / Palestinian
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
67.5%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dell
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dell
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$142
Trade this on Kalshi
Rare Earth
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rare Earth
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Kalshi
Anthropic / Claude
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anthropic / Claude
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$545
Trade this on Kalshi
TrumpRx
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
TrumpRx
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Kalshi
Nvidia
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$623
Trade this on Kalshi
Tesla / TSLA
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tesla / TSLA
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Kalshi
Autism
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Autism
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$222
Trade this on Kalshi
Chevron / CVX
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chevron / CVX
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
Mercedes / Mercedes-Benz
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mercedes / Mercedes-Benz
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
TSMC / TSM
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
TSMC / TSM
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Elon Musk
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ozempic / GLP-1
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ozempic / GLP-1
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$262
Trade this on Kalshi
Switzerland / Swiss
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Switzerland / Swiss
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Kalshi
Andy Burnham
59%
Polymarket 59%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andy Burnham
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bahrain / Bahraini
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bahrain / Bahraini
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Panama / Panamanian
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Panama / Panamanian
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$255
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Rutte
56%
Polymarket 56%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Rutte
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Micron / MU
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Micron / MU
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$41
Trade this on Kalshi
Turning Point
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Turning Point
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Emmanuel Macron
55.5%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Emmanuel Macron
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
JPMorgan / JPM
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
JPMorgan / JPM
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$111
Trade this on Kalshi
Refinance / Refinanced / Refinancing
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Refinance / Refinanced / Refinancing
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$271
Trade this on Kalshi
BBC
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
BBC
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$192
Trade this on Kalshi
Honda / HMC
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Honda / HMC
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Kalshi
IBM
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
IBM
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$53
Trade this on Kalshi
Microsoft / MSFT
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Microsoft / MSFT
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Kalshi
Kuwait / Kuwaiti
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kuwait / Kuwaiti
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
ChatGPT / OpenAI
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
ChatGPT / OpenAI
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Kalshi
Paramount / PSKY
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paramount / PSKY
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$219
Trade this on Kalshi
Friedrich Merz
45%
Polymarket 45%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Friedrich Merz
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Whistleblower
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Whistleblower
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$233
Trade this on Kalshi
Ahmed al-Sharaa
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ahmed al-Sharaa
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ursula von der Leyen
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ursula von der Leyen
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$90K
Trade this on Polymarket
AMD
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
AMD
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Lula da Silva
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lula da Silva
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
South Africa / South African
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
South Africa / South African
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Golden Dome
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Golden Dome
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$351
Trade this on Kalshi
DoorDash / DASH
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
DoorDash / DASH
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Iceland / Icelandic
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iceland / Icelandic
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Kalshi
Oracle / ORCL
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oracle / ORCL
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$695
Trade this on Kalshi
Caterpillar
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Caterpillar
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
SMR / Small Modular Reactor
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
SMR / Small Modular Reactor
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$166
Trade this on Kalshi
Stablecoin
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stablecoin
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
eBay
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
eBay
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
BlackRock
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
BlackRock
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Hungary / Hungarian
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hungary / Hungarian
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$247
Trade this on Kalshi
Airbnb / ABNB
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Airbnb / ABNB
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Netflix / NFLX
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Netflix / NFLX
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
Texas Instruments
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Texas Instruments
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Kalshi
Belgium / Belgian
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Belgium / Belgian
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$390
Trade this on Kalshi
Sudan / Sudanese
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sudan / Sudanese
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
Saronic
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Saronic
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
Manufactured Housing
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Manufactured Housing
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$186
Trade this on Kalshi
Mastercard
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mastercard
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$203
Trade this on Kalshi
Qualcomm / QCOM
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Qualcomm / QCOM
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Paraguay / Paraguayan
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paraguay / Paraguayan
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Jamaica / Jamaican
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jamaica / Jamaican
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Peptide
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peptide
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$679
Trade this on Kalshi
Verizon
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Verizon
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Kim Jong Un
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kim Jong Un
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pope Leo XIV
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pope Leo XIV
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Maria Corina Machado
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maria Corina Machado
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rigetti / RGTI
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rigetti / RGTI
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Kalshi
Reza Pahlavi
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reza Pahlavi
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Miguel Díaz-Canel
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miguel Díaz-Canel
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicolás Maduro
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicolás Maduro
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$151
Trade this on Polymarket
Mojtaba Khamenei
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mojtaba Khamenei
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Masoud Pezeshkian
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Masoud Pezeshkian
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yoon Suk Yeol
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yoon Suk Yeol
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$406
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Germany / German
  • Mexico / Mexican
  • Saudi Arabia / Saudi Arabian

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Germany / German for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will Trump speak to by November 30?". Germany / German leads at 99.5%. Next is Mexico / Mexican at 99.5%. $319K has traded across 128 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question. This market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe. If the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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