The Prediction Markets

Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Closed
Jun 30, 2026
Traded
$95K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 30, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 176 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Thom Tillis
98.6%
Polymarket 98.6%polled, 4224 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thom Tillis
Last price
98.6%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kevin Cramer
96.7%
Polymarket 96.7%polled, 4224 h agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kevin Cramer
Last price
96.7%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
94.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
John Kennedy
93.4%
Polymarket 93.4%polled, 4224 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Kennedy
Last price
93.4%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
87.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lisa Murkowski
62.5%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 4224 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lisa Murkowski
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Polymarket
Chuck Schumer
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 4224 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chuck Schumer
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$759
Trade this on Polymarket
Bernie Sanders
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 4224 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bernie Sanders
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elizabeth Warren
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 4224 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elizabeth Warren
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Thom Tillis
  • Kevin Cramer
  • John Kennedy

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?". Thom Tillis last traded at 98.6%. Next is Kevin Cramer at 96.7%. $95K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 30, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Senator votes “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The vote refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without individual voting (e.g. a voice vote), this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the nomination is rejected unanimously or without individual voting, this market will resolve to “No”. If no qualifying vote is held by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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