The Prediction Markets

Who will win the 2027 Punjab Assembly election?

Closes
Feb 20, 2028, in 16 months
Traded
$8K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
17 min ago
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What the markets expect

Aam Aadmi Party 57%

Next is AAP at 51%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 19 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Aam Aadmi Party
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aam Aadmi Party
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$28
Trade this on Kalshi
AAP
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
AAP
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
INC
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
INC
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Indian National Congress
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Indian National Congress
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$813
Trade this on Kalshi
BJP
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
BJP
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bharatiya Janata Party
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bharatiya Janata Party
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$358
Trade this on Kalshi
Shiromani Akali Dal
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shiromani Akali Dal
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$28
Trade this on Kalshi
SAD
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
SAD
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$578
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Election Commission of India

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Aam Aadmi Party
  • AAP
  • INC

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Aam Aadmi Party for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will win the 2027 Punjab Assembly election?". Aam Aadmi Party leads at 57%. Next is AAP at 51%. $8K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 20, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Who will win the 2027 Punjab Assembly election? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets