The Prediction Markets

Will a Democrat win a Solid Republican House district?

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
33 min ago
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What the markets expect

Yes 95.3%

The venues differ most on Yes (Polymarket 94.9%, Kalshi 96%), a 1.1-point gap.

Yes 95.3%No 4.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 38 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Yes
95.3%
Polymarket 94.9%polled, 33 min agoKalshi 96%polled, 38 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
94.9%
As of
Polled 33 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
92.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 38 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
9¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 38 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 97¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 7 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi resolves Yes only if a Democrat (including DFL/Democratic-NPL) wins; Polymarket resolves Yes if any non-Republican wins, including independents or third-party candidates. An independent winning a listed district pays Polymarket Yes but not Kalshi Yes.
  • Cook ratings date differs: Kalshi uses ratings dated Oct 30, 2026; Polymarket uses ratings as of Nov 2, 2026. Both list the same 164 districts in the shown text, but the lists could diverge if the text were truncated or the ratings changed.
  • Polymarket excludes races undetermined by March 31, 2027 from consideration; Kalshi has no stated fallback in the shown text.
  • Kalshi allows accelerated determination once media consensus projects a Democratic winner in any district; Polymarket relies on official sources and credible reporting consensus with no stated early-call rule.
  • Resolution sources are stated differently: Kalshi gives no explicit source beyond media consensus for early determination, while Polymarket names state electoral authorities, Congress and credible reporting.
  • Kalshi explicitly handles Louisiana's Nov 3 open primary and Dec 12 runoff; Polymarket says only that runoffs and other procedures are included. Both likely treat the Louisiana runoff the same way.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, The Associated Press, CNN
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi resolves Yes only if a Democrat (including DFL/Democratic-NPL) wins; Polymarket resolves Yes if any non-Republican wins, including independents or third-party candidates. An independent winning a listed district pays Polymarket Yes but not Kalshi Yes.
  • Cook ratings date differs: Kalshi uses ratings dated Oct 30, 2026; Polymarket uses ratings as of Nov 2, 2026. Both list the same 164 districts in the shown text, but the lists could diverge if the text were truncated or the ratings changed.
  • Polymarket excludes races undetermined by March 31, 2027 from consideration; Kalshi has no stated fallback in the shown text.
  • Kalshi allows accelerated determination once media consensus projects a Democratic winner in any district; Polymarket relies on official sources and credible reporting consensus with no stated early-call rule.
  • Resolution sources are stated differently: Kalshi gives no explicit source beyond media consensus for early determination, while Polymarket names state electoral authorities, Congress and credible reporting.
  • Kalshi explicitly handles Louisiana's Nov 3 open primary and Dec 12 runoff; Polymarket says only that runoffs and other procedures are included. Both likely treat the Louisiana runoff the same way.
  • Trading closes Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes

Live prices for Yes

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover Yes and No across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will a Democrat win a Solid Republican House district?". Yes leads at 95.3%. $4K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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