The Prediction Markets

Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31?

Closed
Mar 31, 2026
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 205 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Yes
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4935 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 205 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31?". Yes last traded at 0.1%. $26K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify. A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form. The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

See all politics markets