The Prediction Markets

Will Donald Trump announce a run for President by October 1, 2021?

Closed
Oct 2, 2021
Traded
$40K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Oct 2, 2021. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will Donald Trump announce a run for President by October 1, 2021?". $40K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Oct 2, 2021.

This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump will announce that he is running for the Office of the President of the United States in 2024 before October 2, 2021, 12:00 am ET, the resolution date. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any official announcement stating Donald Trump is running for the Office of the President of the United States in 2024 is released before the resolution date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Official announcements will include any press releases, definitive statements, videos, or credible statements to the media from Donald Trump or his staff stating he is running for Office of the President of the United States in 2024. In the event of conflicting information from different media sources or ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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