The Prediction Markets

Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil?

Closes
Jul 1, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$87K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

December 31, 2027 34.5%

Next is June 30, 2027 at 19.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
December 31, 2027
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2027
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$576
Trade this on Polymarket
June 30, 2027
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Jul 1, 2027
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2027
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
March 31, 2027
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 31, 2027
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Apr 1, 2027
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Feb 1, 2027
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Feb 1, 2027
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
December 31, 2026
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yes
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
November 30, 2026
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30, 2026
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Dec 1, 2026
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official government sources of Brazil, official social media accounts of Flávio Bolsonaro or their official representatives, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in Brazil

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • December 31, 2027
  • June 30, 2027
  • Before Jul 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list December 31, 2027 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil?". December 31, 2027 leads at 34.5%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 19.5%. $87K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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