The Prediction Markets

Will Gay Marriage pass the U.S. Senate?

Closed
Dec 31, 2022
Traded
$70K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Dec 31, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: congress.gov

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will Gay Marriage pass the U.S. Senate?". $70K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Dec 31, 2022.

The Respect for Marriage Act (H.R. 8404) is a proposed bill in the United States Congress to repeal the Defense of Marriage Act and to require the U.S. federal government to recognize the validity of same-sex marriages and interracial marriages. The Defense of Marriage Act is a bill former President Clinton signed into law in 1996 that recognized marriage as “only a legal union between one man and one woman as husband and wife” and allowed states to refuse to recognize same-sex marriages granted under the laws of other states. In July 2022, the Respect for Marriage Act was reintroduced to Congress with revisions, including protections for interracial marriages. The Act passed the House in a bipartisan vote (267-157) on July 19, 2022. ---- This market will resolve to “Yes” if "The Respect for Marriage Act" (H.R.8404) passes the U.S. Senate on the first vote before the resolution date, December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If H.R.8404 is rejected by U.S. Senate on the first vote or if there is no vote held and finalized before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8404, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice to resolve this market. Note, the vote on this act must be finalized and closed ("gaveled") before midnight on this market's resolution date. Any ongoing vote that is not yet closed will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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