The Prediction Markets

Will Joe Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating be 41.5% or higher on April 30?

Closed
May 1, 2022
Traded
$42K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 1, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: projects.fivethirtyeight.com

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will Joe Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating be 41.5% or higher on April 30?". $42K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 1, 2022.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden's approval rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight will be greater than or equal to 41.5% for the day of April 30, 2022. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The resolution data for April 30 will be checked on May 1, 2022 (12 PM ET). If for any reason it is unavailable, the resolution source will be checked every 24 hours until the approval rating for the resolution date is available. If the approval rating remains unavailable on the resolution source after 7 days or Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the available approval rating nearest to the resolution date. Please note, the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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