Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Yes 3.2%
Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Yes3.2%3.2%1.9¢ bid, 4.5¢ askpolled, 4 min ago4.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)Yes3.2%Polymarket 3.2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Yes
3.2%
3.2%
1.9¢ bid, 4.5¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
4.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Yes
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yes
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,222 (22.2x)
- Volume
- $1K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Yes
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Cover Yes and No across venues
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Will Tarik have a boxing fight with FNS in 2026?". Yes leads at 3.2%. $1K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.
This market will resolve "Yes" if Tarik "tarik" Celik and Pujan "FNS" Mehta compete against each other in a combat-sports bout that physically takes place at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". A qualifying bout is any publicly held combat-sports match — boxing, kickboxing, MMA, or any professional, amateur, or exhibition influencer/creator format — in which the two face each other as opponents, meeting all of the following: Organized and promoted: it appears on a fight card or event listing published in advance by a promoter or organizer (not an impromptu confrontation). Officiated: it is conducted under a recognized combat-sports ruleset with at least one neutral referee and defined timed rounds. Contested: both participants compete as opponents and the outcome is decided by the competition itself (decision, stoppage, knockout, submission, or disqualification), not pre-arranged. A scripted or predetermined result (as in pro wrestling or a skit) does not qualify. Documented: an official result is reported by an established combat-sports/esports outlet or the promoter's official broadcast. If no such boxing match between the two takes place on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET — including if it is announced but cancelled, postponed into 2027, or never scheduled — this market will resolve "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., coverage from established esports/boxing outlets, the official event broadcast or promoter, or verified announcements from Tarik or FNS themselves). In the event of conflicting reports, official confirmation from the event promoter or the fighters' official channels will take precedence.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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