Top of book
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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Yes 63%
Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Yes63%63%62¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 23s ago64¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $156 (1.56x)Yes63%Polymarket 63%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Yes
63%
63%
62¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 23s ago
64¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Yes
63%
Polymarket 63%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yes
- Last price
- 63%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 62¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $1K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Yes
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Buy
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Cover Yes and No across venues
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Will the D66–VVD–CDA Dutch coalition break in 2026?". Yes leads at 63%. $1K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of D66, VVD and CDA breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if D66, VVD or CDA ceases to be a coalition partner in the Dutch government (the Jetten cabinet, sworn in on February 23, 2026). A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – the cabinet offering its resignation to the King because of a breakdown between the coalition parties, – or the appointment of a new government. If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party. If the coalition breaks and the sitting Prime Minister remains in office with a new coalition, as a minority government, or as head of a caretaker (demissionary) cabinet, this market will still resolve to “Yes.” A cabinet resignation that does not result from a breakdown between the coalition parties (e.g., following a successful motion of no confidence while D66, VVD and CDA all remain committed to the coalition) will not count. The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, threats to leave, or indications of an impending break will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Netherlands; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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