The Prediction Markets

Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by...?

Closes
Nov 7, 2026, in 2 days
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
21 min ago
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What the markets expect

December 31 77%

Next is November 30 at 53.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 24 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
December 31
77%
Polymarket 77%polled, 24 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 24 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$323
Trade this on Polymarket
November 30
53.5%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 24 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 24 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$137
Trade this on Polymarket
Yair Lapid
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yair Lapid
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
November 13
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 24 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 13
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 24 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$977
Trade this on Polymarket
Gadi Eisenkot
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gadi Eisenkot
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Elazar Stern
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elazar Stern
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Chili Tropper
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chili Tropper
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$149
Trade this on Kalshi
Oded Forer
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oded Forer
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$330
Trade this on Kalshi
Orit Farkash Hacohen
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Orit Farkash Hacohen
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$591
Trade this on Kalshi
Amir Ohana
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amir Ohana
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$934
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 12 more outcomes
Matan Kahana
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matan Kahana
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
Gilad Kariv
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gilad Kariv
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Merav Ben Ari
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merav Ben Ari
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$396
Trade this on Kalshi
Avigdor Lieberman
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Avigdor Lieberman
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Naftali Bennett
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Naftali Bennett
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ram Ben-Barak
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ram Ben-Barak
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Yair Golan
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yair Golan
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Boaz Bismuth
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Boaz Bismuth
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Meirav Cohen
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meirav Cohen
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Vladimir Beliak
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vladimir Beliak
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ofir Katz
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ofir Katz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
November 6
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 24 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 6
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 24 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Knesset

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • December 31
  • November 30
  • Yair Lapid

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list December 31 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by...?". December 31 leads at 77%. Next is November 30 at 53.5%. $18K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first Speaker of the 26th Knesset is elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An individual serving as, appointed as, or deemed to be acting or temporary Speaker will not trigger a "Yes" resolution to this market. Only the successful election of the first Speaker of the 26th Knesset will result in this market's resolving to "Yes". This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a Speaker of the 26th Knesset is successfully elected. Otherwise, this market may not resolve until its expiration time passes. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset and the Government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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