The Prediction Markets

Will Trump dance on...?

Closed
May 31, 2026
Traded
$274K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
May 20
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 20
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$69
Trade this on Polymarket
May 22
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 22
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
May 25
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 25
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
May 26
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 26
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Polymarket
May 30
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 30
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Polymarket
May 19
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 19
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Polymarket
May 21
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 21
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
May 23
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 23
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
May 24
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 24
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Trade this on Polymarket
May 27
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 27
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 5 more outcomes
May 29
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 29
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Polymarket
May 28
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 28
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket
May 31
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 31
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Polymarket
May 18
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 18
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$950
Trade this on Polymarket
May 17
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 17
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$541
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • May 20
  • May 22
  • May 25

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will Trump dance on...?". May 20 last traded at 19.5%. Next is May 22 at 19%. $274K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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