The Prediction Markets

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

FinalKickoff
Traded
$505K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
May 17
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 3828 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
May 17
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
May 19
93%
Polymarket 93%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 19
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
May 22
92.5%
Polymarket 92.5%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 22
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$947
Trade this on Polymarket
May 18
91.5%
Polymarket 91.5%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 18
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
May 27
91.5%
Polymarket 91.5%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 27
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
May 20
91%
Polymarket 91%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 20
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
May 29
91%
Polymarket 91%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 29
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Polymarket
May 23
90.5%
Polymarket 90.5%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 23
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$147
Trade this on Polymarket
May 25
90.5%
Polymarket 90.5%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 25
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$626
Trade this on Polymarket
May 26
90.5%
Polymarket 90.5%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 26
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$735
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 5 more outcomes
May 28
90.5%
Polymarket 90.5%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 28
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$523
Trade this on Polymarket
May 30
90.5%
Polymarket 90.5%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 30
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Polymarket
May 21
90%
Polymarket 90%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 21
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$647
Trade this on Polymarket
May 31
90%
Polymarket 90%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 31
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$399
Trade this on Polymarket
May 24
89%
Polymarket 89%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 24
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$479
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • May 17
  • May 19
  • May 22

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?". May 17 last traded at 100%. Next is May 19 at 93%. $505K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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