The Prediction Markets

Will Trump visit China by...?

Closed
Oct 31, 2025
Traded
$27.7M
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Oct 31, 2025. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 176 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
June 30
83.5%
Polymarket 83.5%polled, 4230 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30
Last price
83.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$1.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
May 31
79.5%
Polymarket 79.5%polled, 4230 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 31
Last price
79.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$2.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
May 15
67.5%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 4230 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 15
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$583K
Trade this on Polymarket
May 8
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4230 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 8
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$191K
Trade this on Polymarket
April 30, 2026
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4230 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
April 30, 2026
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$12.8M
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • June 30
  • May 31
  • May 15

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will Trump visit China by...?". June 30 last traded at 83.5%. Next is May 31 at 79.5%. $27.7M has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Oct 31, 2025.

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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