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Trading ended on May 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 176 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
May 1334.5%37.5%34.5% fair36¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago39¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $256 (2.56x)May 1334.5%Polymarket 37.5%(34.5% fair)polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
May 13
34.5%
37.5%
34.5% fair
36¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
39¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
May 13
34.5%
Polymarket 37.5%(34.5% fair)polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 13
- Last price
- 37.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 34.5%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 36¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $22K
May 1433.6%36.5%33.6% fair35¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago38¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $263 (2.63x)May 1433.6%Polymarket 36.5%(33.6% fair)polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
May 14
33.6%
36.5%
33.6% fair
35¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
38¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
May 14
33.6%
Polymarket 36.5%(33.6% fair)polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 14
- Last price
- 36.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 33.6%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
- Volume
- $10K
No visit by May 3116.6%18%16.6% fair17¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago19¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $526 (5.26x)No visit by May 3116.6%Polymarket 18%(16.6% fair)polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
No visit by May 31
16.6%
18%
16.6% fair
17¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
19¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
No visit by May 31
16.6%
Polymarket 18%(16.6% fair)polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- No visit by May 31
- Last price
- 18%
- Fair, margin removed
- 16.6%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $12K
May 153.4%3.7%3.3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)May 153.4%Polymarket 3.7%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
May 15
3.4%
3.7%
3.3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
May 15
3.4%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 15
- Last price
- 3.7%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $7K
May 251.4%1.6%0.2¢ bid, 2.9¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago2.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)May 251.4%Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
May 25
1.4%
1.6%
0.2¢ bid, 2.9¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
2.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
May 25
1.4%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 25
- Last price
- 1.6%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,448 (34.5x)
- Volume
- $3K
May 161%1.1%0.2¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)May 161%Polymarket 1.1%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
May 16
1%
1.1%
0.2¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
May 16
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 16
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
May 240.8%0.9%0.2¢ bid, 1.6¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago1.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)May 240.8%Polymarket 0.9%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
May 24
0.8%
0.9%
0.2¢ bid, 1.6¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
1.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
May 24
0.8%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 24
- Last price
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,250 (62.5x)
- Volume
- $2K
May 210.7%0.8%0.2¢ bid, 1.3¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago1.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)May 210.7%Polymarket 0.8%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
May 21
0.7%
0.8%
0.2¢ bid, 1.3¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
1.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
May 21
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 21
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,692 (76.9x)
- Volume
- $2K
May 260.7%0.8%0.3¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)May 260.7%Polymarket 0.8%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
May 26
0.7%
0.8%
0.3¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
May 26
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 26
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
May 290.7%0.8%0.2¢ bid, 1.4¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago1.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)May 290.7%Polymarket 0.8%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
May 29
0.7%
0.8%
0.2¢ bid, 1.4¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
1.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
May 29
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 29
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,143 (71.4x)
- Volume
- $2K
Show 22 more outcomesHide 22 outcomes
May 190.6%0.7%0.2¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)May 190.6%Polymarket 0.7%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
May 19
0.6%
0.7%
0.2¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
May 19
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 19
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
May 310.6%0.7%0.2¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)May 310.6%Polymarket 0.7%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
May 31
0.6%
0.7%
0.2¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
May 31
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 31
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
May 180.5%0.5%0.2¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)May 180.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
May 18
0.5%
0.5%
0.2¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
May 18
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 18
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $2K
May 200.5%0.5%0.2¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)May 200.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
May 20
0.5%
0.5%
0.2¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
May 20
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 20
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $3K
May 220.5%0.5%0.2¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)May 220.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
May 22
0.5%
0.5%
0.2¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
May 22
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 22
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $2K
May 270.5%0.5%0.2¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)May 270.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
May 27
0.5%
0.5%
0.2¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
May 27
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 27
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $2K
May 280.5%0.6%0.3¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)May 280.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
May 28
0.5%
0.6%
0.3¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
May 28
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 28
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $2K
May 300.5%0.6%0.3¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)May 300.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
May 30
0.5%
0.6%
0.3¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
May 30
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 30
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $2K
May 170.4%0.5%0.2¢ bid, 0.7¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $14,286 (143x)May 170.4%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
May 17
0.4%
0.5%
0.2¢ bid, 0.7¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $14,286 (143x)
May 17
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 17
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $14,286 (143x)
- Volume
- $2K
May 100.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)May 100.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
May 10
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
May 10
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 10
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $2K
May 110.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)May 110.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
May 11
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
May 11
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 11
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $2K
May 90.2%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)May 90.2%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
May 9
0.2%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
May 9
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 9
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $2K
May 120.2%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)May 120.2%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
May 12
0.2%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
May 12
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 12
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $3K
May 230.2%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)May 230.2%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
May 23
0.2%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
May 23
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 23
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $2K
May 20.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)May 20.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
May 2
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
May 2
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 2
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $2K
May 30.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)May 30.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
May 3
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
May 3
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 3
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $3K
May 40.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)May 40.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
May 4
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
May 4
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 4
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $2K
May 50.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)May 50.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
May 5
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
May 5
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 5
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $3K
May 60.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)May 60.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
May 6
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
May 6
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 6
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $3K
May 70.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)May 70.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
May 7
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
May 7
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 7
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $3K
May 80.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)May 80.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
May 8
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
May 8
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- May 8
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $3K
On or prior to May 10.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4229 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)On or prior to May 10.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
On or prior to May 1
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 4229 h ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
On or prior to May 1
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4229 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- On or prior to May 1
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 176 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $13K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- May 13
- May 14
- No visit by May 31
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "Will Trump visit China on...?". May 13 last traded at 34.5%. Next is May 14 at 33.6%. $129K has traded across 32 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 31, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which U.S. President Donald Trump next visits China. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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