The Prediction Markets

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be President of Ukraine on April 22, 2022?

Closed
Apr 22, 2022
Traded
$530K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 22, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: president.gov.ua

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be President of Ukraine on April 22, 2022?". $530K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 22, 2022.

In Response to Trader Inquiry: If the official UA source https://www.president.gov.ua/en says Zelenskyy is president at the resolution time, the market will resolve “Yes.” Otherwise, it will resolve “No.” If the source is unavailable, it will be checked every 4 hours for a week. If still unavailable, other official UA sources will be checked such as https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en, and if unavailable at that check, the UN source will be used instead. Please note that https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa will not be used as a source. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is President of Ukraine on April 22, 2022, 12:00:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Volodymyr Zelenskyy announces intent to resign as President of Ukraine before April 22, 2022, 12:00:00 PM ET but remains in office on that time, this market will still resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ukraine, including statements released by verified social media accounts affiliated with the Government of Ukraine (https://www.president.gov.ua/en, https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en, etc.), however official information from the United Nations (https://www.un.org/dgacm/sites/www.un.org.dgacm/files/Documents_Protocol/hspmfmlist.pdf, etc.) will also suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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