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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Above 4.1750 99.5%
Next is Above 4.1800 at 99.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 4.175099.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 4.175099.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, just now
Above 4.1750
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 4.1750
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1750
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
Above 4.180099.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 4.180099.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, just now
Above 4.1800
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 4.1800
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1800
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
Above 4.185099.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 4.185099.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, just now
Above 4.1850
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 4.1850
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1850
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
Above 4.190099%99%76¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 4.190099%Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Above 4.1900
99%
99%
76¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 4.1900
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1900
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 76¢
- Volume
- $694
Above 4.195099%99%76¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 4.195099%Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Above 4.1950
99%
99%
76¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 4.1950
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1950
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 76¢
- Volume
- $1K
Above 4.200099%99%76¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 4.200099%Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Above 4.2000
99%
99%
76¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 4.2000
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2000
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 76¢
- Volume
- $200
Above 4.205099%99%76¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 4.205099%Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Above 4.2050
99%
99%
76¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 4.2050
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2050
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 76¢
- Volume
- $210
Above 4.210099%99%75¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 4.210099%Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Above 4.2100
99%
99%
75¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 4.2100
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2100
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 75¢
- Volume
- $210
Above 4.215099%99%17¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 4.215099%Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Above 4.2150
99%
99%
17¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 4.2150
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2150
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- Volume
- $2K
Above 4.220099%99%97¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 4.220099%Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Above 4.2200
99%
99%
97¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 4.2200
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2200
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 97¢
- Volume
- $200
Show 27 more outcomesHide 27 outcomes
Above 4.225099%99%99¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 4.225099%Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Above 4.2250
99%
99%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 4.2250
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2250
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $36K
Above 4.230099%99%98¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 4.230099%Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Above 4.2300
99%
99%
98¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 4.2300
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2300
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 98¢
- Volume
- $200
Above 4.235099%99%98¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 4.235099%Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Above 4.2350
99%
99%
98¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 4.2350
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2350
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 98¢
- Volume
- $1K
Above 4.240099%99%14¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 4.240099%Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Above 4.2400
99%
99%
14¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 4.2400
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2400
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- Volume
- $200
Above 4.245099%99%75¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 4.245099%Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Above 4.2450
99%
99%
75¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 4.2450
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2450
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 75¢
- Volume
- $200
Above 4.250099%99%98¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 4.250099%Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Above 4.2500
99%
99%
98¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 4.2500
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2500
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 98¢
- Volume
- $2K
Above 4.255099%99%94¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 4.255099%Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Above 4.2550
99%
99%
94¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 4.2550
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2550
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 94¢
- Volume
- $3K
Above 4.290098%98%52¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, just now98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Above 4.290098%Kalshi 98%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Above 4.2900
98%
98%
52¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, just now
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Above 4.2900
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2900
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 52¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Above 4.265095%95%74¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, just now97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Above 4.265095%Kalshi 95%polled, just nowBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Above 4.2650
95%
95%
74¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, just now
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Above 4.2650
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, just nowBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2650
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 74¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
Above 4.270087%87%35¢ bid, 87¢ askpolled, just now87¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $115 (1.15x)Above 4.270087%Kalshi 87%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Above 4.2700
87%
87%
35¢ bid, 87¢ ask
polled, just now
87¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Above 4.2700
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2700
- Last price
- 87%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
Above 4.355087%87%10¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, just now89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Above 4.355087%Kalshi 87%polled, just nowBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Above 4.3550
87%
87%
10¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, just now
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Above 4.3550
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, just nowBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.3550
- Last price
- 87%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
Above 4.320086%86%22¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, just now86¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $116 (1.16x)Above 4.320086%Kalshi 86%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Above 4.3200
86%
86%
22¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, just now
86¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Above 4.3200
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.3200
- Last price
- 86%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
Above 4.300083%83%56¢ bid, 83¢ askpolled, just now83¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $120 (1.20x)Above 4.300083%Kalshi 83%polled, just nowBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Above 4.3000
83%
83%
56¢ bid, 83¢ ask
polled, just now
83¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Above 4.3000
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, just nowBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.3000
- Last price
- 83%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 83¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $120 (1.20x)
- Volume
- $163
Above 4.295078%78%69¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, just now88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)Above 4.295078%Kalshi 78%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Above 4.2950
78%
78%
69¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, just now
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Above 4.2950
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2950
- Last price
- 78%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 69¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $3
Above 4.315078%78%10¢ bid, 91¢ askpolled, just now91¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $110 (1.10x)Above 4.315078%Kalshi 78%polled, just nowBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Above 4.3150
78%
78%
10¢ bid, 91¢ ask
polled, just now
91¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Above 4.3150
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, just nowBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.3150
- Last price
- 78%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 91¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
Above 4.335078%78%10¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, just now93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Above 4.335078%Kalshi 78%polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Above 4.3350
78%
78%
10¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, just now
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Above 4.3350
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.3350
- Last price
- 78%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
Above 4.260057%57%15¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, just now99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 4.260057%Kalshi 57%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.2600
57%
57%
15¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.2600
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2600
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.275053.5%53.5%10¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, just now97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Above 4.275053.5%Kalshi 53.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Above 4.2750
53.5%
53.5%
10¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, just now
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Above 4.2750
53.5%
Kalshi 53.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2750
- Last price
- 53.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
Above 4.285052.5%52.5%7¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, just now98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Above 4.285052.5%Kalshi 52.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Above 4.2850
52.5%
52.5%
7¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, just now
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Above 4.2850
52.5%
Kalshi 52.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2850
- Last price
- 52.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Above 4.310050%50%21¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, just now86¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $116 (1.16x)Above 4.310050%Kalshi 50%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Above 4.3100
50%
50%
21¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, just now
86¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Above 4.3100
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.3100
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
Above 4.340050%50%2¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, just now98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Above 4.340050%Kalshi 50%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Above 4.3400
50%
50%
2¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, just now
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Above 4.3400
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.3400
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Above 4.280049.5%49.5%8¢ bid, 91¢ askpolled, just now91¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $110 (1.10x)Above 4.280049.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Above 4.2800
49.5%
49.5%
8¢ bid, 91¢ ask
polled, just now
91¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Above 4.2800
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2800
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 91¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
Above 4.330049%49%2¢ bid, 96¢ askpolled, just now96¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Above 4.330049%Kalshi 49%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Above 4.3300
49%
49%
2¢ bid, 96¢ ask
polled, just now
96¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Above 4.3300
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.3300
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
Above 4.325047.5%47.5%2¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, just now93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Above 4.325047.5%Kalshi 47.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Above 4.3250
47.5%
47.5%
2¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, just now
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Above 4.3250
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.3250
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
Above 4.345020%20%17¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, just now86¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $116 (1.16x)Above 4.345020%Kalshi 20%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Above 4.3450
20%
20%
17¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, just now
86¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Above 4.3450
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.3450
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
Above 4.350013%13%13¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, just now86¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $116 (1.16x)Above 4.350013%Kalshi 13%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Above 4.3500
13%
13%
13¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, just now
86¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Above 4.3500
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.3500
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
Above 4.305010%10%10¢ bid, 85¢ askpolled, just now85¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $118 (1.18x)Above 4.305010%Kalshi 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Above 4.3050
10%
10%
10¢ bid, 85¢ ask
polled, just now
85¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Above 4.3050
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.3050
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 85¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $118 (1.18x)
- Volume
- $800
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: AAA
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 4.1750
- Above 4.1800
- Above 4.1850
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Wisconsin gas prices tomorrow". Above 4.1750 leads at 99.5%. Next is Above 4.1800 at 99.5%. $49K has traded across 37 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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