The Prediction Markets

Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner

FinalKickoff
Traded
$84K
Venues
Polymarket
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on Aug 11, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Sara Rodriguez
39.6%
Polymarket 36.5%(39.6% fair)polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sara Rodriguez
Last price
36.5%
Fair, margin removed
39.6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Francesca Hong
33.9%
Polymarket 31.3%(33.9% fair)polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 36.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $274 (2.74x)
Polymarket
Contract
Francesca Hong
Last price
31.3%
Fair, margin removed
33.9%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
36.5¢
Sell Yes
26.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$274 (2.74x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mandela Barnes
23.8%
Polymarket 22%(23.8% fair)polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mandela Barnes
Last price
22%
Fair, margin removed
23.8%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kelda Roys
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kelda Roys
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
David Crowley
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Crowley
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joel Brennan
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joel Brennan
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Zachary Roper
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zachary Roper
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chris Larson
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Larson
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Melissa Agard
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Melissa Agard
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Missy Hughes
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Missy Hughes
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
Tim Jacobson
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tim Jacobson
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Nelson
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Nelson
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brett Hulsey
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3030 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brett Hulsey
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Sara Rodriguez
  • Francesca Hong
  • Mandela Barnes

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner". Sara Rodriguez last traded at 39.6%. Next is Francesca Hong at 33.9%. $84K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Aug 11, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets