The Prediction Markets

Wisconsin Governor Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$22K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 2.2M 81%

Next is Above 2.4M at 79%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 2.2M
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.2M
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.4M
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.4M
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$640
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.6M
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.6M
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$825
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.8M
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.8M
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.6M-2.8M
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.6M-2.8M
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 2.9M
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.9M
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3M
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3M
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$571
Trade this on Kalshi
2.4M-2.6M
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.4M-2.6M
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.8M-3M
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.8M-3M
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 3.2M
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.2M
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$750
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
2.2M-2.4M
9.8%
Polymarket 9.8%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.2M-2.4M
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
3M-3.2M
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
3M-3.2M
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$573
Trade this on Polymarket
3.2M+
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.2M+
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.2M
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.2M
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Wisconsin Elections Commission

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 2.2M
  • Above 2.4M
  • Above 2.6M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 2.2M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Wisconsin Governor Election: Turnout". Above 2.2M leads at 81%. Next is Above 2.4M at 79%. $22K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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