The Prediction Markets

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on October 22?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$32K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

95 98.5%

Next is 94 at 96.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
95
98.5%
Polymarket 98.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
95
Last price
98.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
97.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
94
96.4%
Polymarket 96.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
94
Last price
96.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
92.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Polymarket
96
95.4%
Polymarket 95.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
96
Last price
95.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
97
92%
Polymarket 92%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
97
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
98
71.5%
Polymarket 71.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
98
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
99
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
99
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
100
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
100
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
101
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
101
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
102
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
102
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
104
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
104
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$285
Trade this on Polymarket
103
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
103
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: app.pyth.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 95
  • 94
  • 96

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on October 22?". 95 leads at 98.5%. Next is 94 at 96.4%. $32K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 22, 2026.

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on October 22?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets