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Trading ended on Aug 18, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Megan Degenfelder65.6%77.4%65.6% fair75.9¢ bid, 78.8¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago78.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Megan Degenfelder65.6%Polymarket 77.4%(65.6% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 78.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Megan Degenfelder
65.6%
77.4%
65.6% fair
75.9¢ bid, 78.8¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
78.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Megan Degenfelder
65.6%
Polymarket 77.4%(65.6% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 78.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Megan Degenfelder
- Last price
- 77.4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 65.6%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 78.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 75.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $12K
Eric Barlow8.6%10.2%8.6% fair3.4¢ bid, 16.9¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago16.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $592 (5.92x)Eric Barlow8.6%Polymarket 10.2%(8.6% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 16.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $592 (5.92x)
Eric Barlow
8.6%
10.2%
8.6% fair
3.4¢ bid, 16.9¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
16.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $592 (5.92x)
Eric Barlow
8.6%
Polymarket 10.2%(8.6% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 16.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $592 (5.92x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Eric Barlow
- Last price
- 10.2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 8.6%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 16.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $592 (5.92x)
- Volume
- $19K
Brent Bien7.4%8.7%7.4% fair2.4¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Brent Bien7.4%Polymarket 8.7%(7.4% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Brent Bien
7.4%
8.7%
7.4% fair
2.4¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Brent Bien
7.4%
Polymarket 8.7%(7.4% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Brent Bien
- Last price
- 8.7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.4%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $3K
Chuck Gray4.5%5.4%4.5% fair0.2¢ bid, 10.5¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago10.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $952 (9.52x)Chuck Gray4.5%Polymarket 5.4%(4.5% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Chuck Gray
4.5%
5.4%
4.5% fair
0.2¢ bid, 10.5¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
10.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Chuck Gray
4.5%
Polymarket 5.4%(4.5% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Chuck Gray
- Last price
- 5.4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 10.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $952 (9.52x)
- Volume
- $2K
Bo Biteman3.3%3.9%3.3% fair0.2¢ bid, 7.5¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago7.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)Bo Biteman3.3%Polymarket 3.9%(3.3% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Bo Biteman
3.3%
3.9%
3.3% fair
0.2¢ bid, 7.5¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
7.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Bo Biteman
3.3%
Polymarket 3.9%(3.3% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bo Biteman
- Last price
- 3.9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,333 (13.3x)
- Volume
- $4K
Curt Meier3.1%3.6%3.1% fair1.6¢ bid, 5.6¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago5.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)Curt Meier3.1%Polymarket 3.6%(3.1% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Curt Meier
3.1%
3.6%
3.1% fair
1.6¢ bid, 5.6¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
5.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Curt Meier
3.1%
Polymarket 3.6%(3.1% fair)polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Curt Meier
- Last price
- 3.6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,786 (17.9x)
- Volume
- $2K
Reid Rasner1.5%1.8%0.1¢ bid, 3.5¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago3.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)Reid Rasner1.5%Polymarket 1.8%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Reid Rasner
1.5%
1.8%
0.1¢ bid, 3.5¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
3.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Reid Rasner
1.5%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Reid Rasner
- Last price
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,857 (28.6x)
- Volume
- $4K
Chip Neiman1.4%1.6%0.6¢ bid, 2.6¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago2.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)Chip Neiman1.4%Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Chip Neiman
1.4%
1.6%
0.6¢ bid, 2.6¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
2.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Chip Neiman
1.4%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Chip Neiman
- Last price
- 1.6%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,846 (38.5x)
- Volume
- $3K
Cheri Steinmetz1.2%1.5%0.8¢ bid, 2.1¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago2.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)Cheri Steinmetz1.2%Polymarket 1.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Cheri Steinmetz
1.2%
1.5%
0.8¢ bid, 2.1¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
2.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Cheri Steinmetz
1.2%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Cheri Steinmetz
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,762 (47.6x)
- Volume
- $2K
Mark Gordon1.1%1.3%0.1¢ bid, 2.5¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago2.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)Mark Gordon1.1%Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Mark Gordon
1.1%
1.3%
0.1¢ bid, 2.5¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
2.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Mark Gordon
1.1%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mark Gordon
- Last price
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,000 (40.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Show 5 more outcomesHide 5 outcomes
Ogen Driskill0.7%0.9%0.2¢ bid, 1.5¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago1.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)Ogen Driskill0.7%Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Ogen Driskill
0.7%
0.9%
0.2¢ bid, 1.5¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
1.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Ogen Driskill
0.7%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ogen Driskill
- Last price
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,667 (66.7x)
- Volume
- $2K
Harriet Hageman0.5%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Harriet Hageman0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Harriet Hageman
0.5%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Harriet Hageman
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Harriet Hageman
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
Paul Ulrich0.5%0.6%0.3¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Paul Ulrich0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Paul Ulrich
0.5%
0.6%
0.3¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Paul Ulrich
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Paul Ulrich
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $2K
Tara Nethercott0.4%0.5%0.3¢ bid, 0.7¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago0.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $14,286 (143x)Tara Nethercott0.4%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Tara Nethercott
0.4%
0.5%
0.3¢ bid, 0.7¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
0.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Tara Nethercott
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tara Nethercott
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $14,286 (143x)
- Volume
- $3K
Joseph Kibler0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Joseph Kibler0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Joseph Kibler
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Joseph Kibler
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Joseph Kibler
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $8K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Megan Degenfelder
- Eric Barlow
- Brent Bien
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner". Megan Degenfelder last traded at 65.6%. Next is Eric Barlow at 8.6%. $70K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Aug 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wyoming, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wyoming Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wyoming Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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