The Prediction Markets

Wyoming Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$15K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 170K 84%

Next is Above 180K at 81%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 170K
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 170K
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$526
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 180K
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 180K
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 190K
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 190K
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200K
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200K
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$427
Trade this on Kalshi
190K-210K
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
190K-210K
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 210K
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 210K
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$211
Trade this on Kalshi
170K-190K
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
170K-190K
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 220K
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 220K
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
150K-170K
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 18.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $529 (5.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
150K-170K
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.9¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$529 (5.29x)
Volume
$654
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 230K
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 230K
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$246
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 12 more outcomes
Above 240K
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 240K
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
230K-250K
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 16.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $613 (6.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
230K-250K
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16.3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$613 (6.13x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Polymarket
250K+
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
250K+
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$997
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 270K
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 270K
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 250K
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 250K
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 280K
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 280K
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$186
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 300K
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 300K
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
210K-230K
5.9%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
210K-230K
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 320K
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 320K
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 260K
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260K
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
150K
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
150K
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$586
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 310K
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 310K
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Wyoming Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 170K
  • Above 180K
  • Above 190K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 170K for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Wyoming Senate Election: Turnout". Above 170K leads at 84%. Next is Above 180K at 81%. $15K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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