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What the markets expect
4.75% or above 82%
Next is 4.75% at 79.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
4.75% or above82%Not listed82%82¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, just now88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)4.75% or above82%Kalshi 82%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
4.75% or above
82%
Not listed
82%
82¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, just now
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
4.75% or above
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.75% or above
- Last price
- 82%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $12K
4.75%79.5%79.5%79¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed80¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $125 (1.25x)4.75%79.5%Polymarket 79.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
4.75%
79.5%
79.5%
79¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
80¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
4.75%
79.5%
Polymarket 79.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.75%
- Last price
- 79.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 79¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
- Volume
- $180
4.8%Polymarket: “4.80%”66%66%65¢ bid, 67¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed67¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $149 (1.49x)4.8%66%Polymarket 66%polled, just nowBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
4.8%
Polymarket: “4.80%”
66%
66%
65¢ bid, 67¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
67¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $149 (1.49x)
4.8%
66%
Polymarket 66%polled, just nowBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.80%
- Last price
- 66%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 67¢
- Sell Yes
- 65¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $149 (1.49x)
- Volume
- $1K
5% or above64%Not listed64%42¢ bid, 77¢ askpolled, just now77¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $130 (1.30x)5% or above64%Kalshi 64%polled, just nowBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
5% or above
64%
Not listed
64%
42¢ bid, 77¢ ask
polled, just now
77¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $130 (1.30x)
5% or above
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, just nowBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5% or above
- Last price
- 64%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
- Volume
- $11K
4.85%63%63%62¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed64¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $156 (1.56x)4.85%63%Polymarket 63%polled, just nowBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
4.85%
63%
63%
62¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
64¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
4.85%
63%
Polymarket 63%polled, just nowBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.85%
- Last price
- 63%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 62¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
5.60%51%51%34¢ bid, 68¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed68¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $147 (1.47x)5.60%51%Polymarket 51%polled, just nowBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
5.60%
51%
51%
34¢ bid, 68¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
68¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $147 (1.47x)
5.60%
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, just nowBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.60%
- Last price
- 51%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 68¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $147 (1.47x)
- Volume
- $60
5.1% or above46%Not listed46%39¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, just now46¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $217 (2.17x)5.1% or above46%Kalshi 46%polled, just nowBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
5.1% or above
46%
Not listed
46%
39¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, just now
46¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
5.1% or above
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, just nowBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.1% or above
- Last price
- 46%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
- Volume
- $10K
4.90%44%44%31¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed57¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $175 (1.75x)4.90%44%Polymarket 44%polled, just nowBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
4.90%
44%
44%
31¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
57¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
4.90%
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, just nowBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.90%
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $4K
5.3%43.5%43.5%42¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed45¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $222 (2.22x)5.3%43.5%Polymarket 43.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
5.3%
43.5%
43.5%
42¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
45¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
5.3%
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.3%
- Last price
- 43.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
- Volume
- $9
5.15% or above43%Not listed43%39¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, just now48¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $208 (2.08x)5.15% or above43%Kalshi 43%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
5.15% or above
43%
Not listed
43%
39¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, just now
48¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
5.15% or above
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.15% or above
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $12K
Show 19 more outcomesHide 19 outcomes
5.0%Polymarket: “5.00%”39%39%30¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed48¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $208 (2.08x)5.0%39%Polymarket 39%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
5.0%
Polymarket: “5.00%”
39%
39%
30¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
48¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
5.0%
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.00%
- Last price
- 39%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $2K
5.7%Polymarket: “5.70%”38%38%37¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed39¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $256 (2.56x)5.7%38%Polymarket 38%polled, just nowBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
5.7%
Polymarket: “5.70%”
38%
38%
37¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
39¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
5.7%
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, just nowBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.70%
- Last price
- 38%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $47K
5.40%37.5%2.1%1.9¢ bid, 2.2¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed2.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)5.40%37.5%Polymarket 73%polled, just nowPolymarket 2.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
5.40%
37.5%
2.1%
1.9¢ bid, 2.2¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
2.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
5.40%
37.5%
Polymarket 73%polled, just nowPolymarket 2.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.40%
- Last price
- 73%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 74¢
- Sell Yes
- 72¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.40%
- Last price
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,545 (45.5x)
- Volume
- $3K
5.25% or above35%Not listed35%34¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, just now44¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $227 (2.27x)5.25% or above35%Kalshi 35%polled, just nowBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
5.25% or above
35%
Not listed
35%
34¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, just now
44¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
5.25% or above
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, just nowBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.25% or above
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $4K
5.1%Polymarket: “5.10%”33%33%31¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)5.1%33%Polymarket 33%polled, just nowBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
5.1%
Polymarket: “5.10%”
33%
33%
31¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
5.1%
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, just nowBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.10%
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $2K
5.50%30.8%4.5%3.5¢ bid, 5.5¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed5.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)5.50%30.8%Polymarket 57%polled, just nowPolymarket 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
5.50%
30.8%
4.5%
3.5¢ bid, 5.5¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
5.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
5.50%
30.8%
Polymarket 57%polled, just nowPolymarket 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.50%
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.50%
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,818 (18.2x)
- Volume
- $5K
5.4%29.5%29.5%28¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed31¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $323 (3.23x)5.4%29.5%Polymarket 29.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
5.4%
29.5%
29.5%
28¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
31¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
5.4%
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.4%
- Last price
- 29.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 28¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $77K
5.80%23.2%23.2%22.2¢ bid, 24.2¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed24.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $413 (4.13x)5.80%23.2%Polymarket 23.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 24.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $413 (4.13x)
5.80%
23.2%
23.2%
22.2¢ bid, 24.2¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
24.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $413 (4.13x)
5.80%
23.2%
Polymarket 23.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 24.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $413 (4.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.80%
- Last price
- 23.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 24.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 22.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $413 (4.13x)
- Volume
- $47K
5.5% or above23%Not listed23%22¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, just now48¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $208 (2.08x)5.5% or above23%Kalshi 23%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
5.5% or above
23%
Not listed
23%
22¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, just now
48¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
5.5% or above
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.5% or above
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $5K
5.2%Polymarket: “5.20%”18.5%18.5%17¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)5.2%18.5%Polymarket 18.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
5.2%
Polymarket: “5.20%”
18.5%
18.5%
17¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
5.2%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.20%
- Last price
- 18.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $1K
5.5%18.3%18.3%17.4¢ bid, 19.1¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed19.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $524 (5.24x)5.5%18.3%Polymarket 18.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 19.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $524 (5.24x)
5.5%
18.3%
18.3%
17.4¢ bid, 19.1¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
19.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $524 (5.24x)
5.5%
18.3%
Polymarket 18.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 19.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $524 (5.24x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.5%
- Last price
- 18.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 17.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $524 (5.24x)
- Volume
- $223K
5.30%10.5%10.5%9¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed12¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $833 (8.33x)5.30%10.5%Polymarket 10.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
5.30%
10.5%
10.5%
9¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
12¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
5.30%
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.30%
- Last price
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $3K
5.75% or above7%Not listed7%6¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, just now14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)5.75% or above7%Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
5.75% or above
7%
Not listed
7%
6¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, just now
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
5.75% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.75% or above
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $732
5.90%7%7%6¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)5.90%7%Polymarket 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
5.90%
7%
7%
6¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
5.90%
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.90%
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $33K
6.0%Polymarket: “6.00%”6.5%6.5%5.5¢ bid, 7.5¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed7.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)6.0%6.5%Polymarket 6.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
6.0%
Polymarket: “6.00%”
6.5%
6.5%
5.5¢ bid, 7.5¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
7.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
6.0%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 6.00%
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,333 (13.3x)
- Volume
- $54K
5.7%5.5%5.5%5.4¢ bid, 5.5¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed5.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)5.7%5.5%Polymarket 5.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
5.7%
5.5%
5.5%
5.4¢ bid, 5.5¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
5.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
5.7%
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.7%
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,818 (18.2x)
- Volume
- $115K
6.0%4.7%4.7%4.3¢ bid, 5.1¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed5.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)6.0%4.7%Polymarket 4.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
6.0%
4.7%
4.7%
4.3¢ bid, 5.1¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
5.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
6.0%
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 6.0%
- Last price
- 4.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,961 (19.6x)
- Volume
- $107K
5.65%2.7%2.7%1.7¢ bid, 3.6¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed3.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)5.65%2.7%Polymarket 2.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
5.65%
2.7%
2.7%
1.7¢ bid, 3.6¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
3.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
5.65%
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.65%
- Last price
- 2.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,778 (27.8x)
- Volume
- $1K
6% or above1%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)6% or above1%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
6% or above
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
6% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6% or above
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: home.treasury.gov, home.treasury.gov
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 4.75% or above
- 4.75%
- 4.8%
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list 4.75% or above for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?". 4.75% or above leads at 82%. Next is 4.75% at 79.5%. $1.4M has traded across 29 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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