Home🏛️Politics2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Live marketEnds Nov 3, 2027 (1y 211d)Updated 11m ago

2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Live prediction market odds for "2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)". Democrats, 8 to 10% is leading at 22.0%. The next most likely outcome is Democrats, 6 to 8% at 20.0%. Total volume is $89K across 10 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Nov 3, 2027.

Leading Outcome
Democrats, 8 to 10%
22.0%
Total Vol
$89K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line

Current Odds

Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Democrats, 8 to 10%
$12K volume
22.0%
Democrats, 6 to 8%
$1K volume
20.0%
Democrats, 4 to 6%
$670 volume
14.0%
Democrats, 10 to 12%
$10K volume
14.0%
Democrats, 12 to 14%
$14K volume
7.0%
Democrats, 2 to 4%
$6K volume
7.0%
Republicans win
$15K volume
7.0%
Democrats, 14 to 16%
$6K volume
6.0%

How This Market Resolves

Live prediction market odds for "2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)". Democrats, 8 to 10% is leading at 22.0%. The next most likely outcome is Democrats, 6 to 8% at 20.0%. Total volume is $89K across 10 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Nov 3, 2027.

Expected resolution date: Nov 3, 2027.

FAQ

What does spread mean here?

Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.

Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?

Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.

How fresh is this data?

Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.

News Sentiment Signal

neutral

Confidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.

50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 3 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
9
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
10%
Median Age
923h
Sources
9
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
10%
Median Age
923h
Avg Sentiment
-0.025
Neutral %
90%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss

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