Current Status
Live
Leading Outcome
Yes 4.1%
V2 BetaOptimized UI
Trade NowLive marketEnds Dec 31, 2027 (1y 83d)Updated 18h ago
2026: Trump's bad year?
Live prediction market odds for "2026: Trump's bad year?". Yes is leading at 4.1%. Total volume is $302K across 1 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi, Polymarket. Expected resolution by Dec 31, 2027.
Leading Outcome
Yes
4.1%
Total Vol
$302K
Across 2 venues
Platforms
2
2 comparable
Best Spread
165 bps
Arb opportunity
Binary Calculator
Max Profit: $6.64
Net PnL
$6.64
ROI
1.33%
Result in
448d 16h 24m
Cost Basis
$500.00
Recommended: Buy "YES" on Polymarket and "NO" on Kalshi for max profit
Easy mode auto-selects the best Yes/No split for current quotes.
Avg Share Price
$0.03
Timestamp
Oct 8, 04:24 AM UTC [Old]
Shares To Buy
506.639
Total Cost
$13.17
Est. Polymarket Fees
$0.26
Total Cost (Inc. Fees)
$13.44
Total Return
$506.64 (+$493.20)
Avg Share Price
$0.96
Timestamp
Oct 8, 04:11 AM UTC [Old]
Shares To Buy
506.639
Total Cost
$485.87
Est. Kalshi Fees
$0.70
Total Cost (Inc. Fees)
$486.56
Total Return
$506.64 (+$20.07)
Current Odds
Outcome
Kalshi Prob
Polymarket Prob
Spread
Freshness
Yes
4.1%
2.5%
165 bps
Stale quote
No
95.9%
97.5%
165 bps
Stale quote
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "2026: Trump's bad year?". Yes is leading at 4.1%. Total volume is $302K across 1 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi, Polymarket. Expected resolution by Dec 31, 2027.
Expected resolution date: Dec 31, 2027.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Matching labels identify likely equivalent outcomes, but settlement rules may differ. A “Rules unverified” label means the comparison is not a verified arbitrage opportunity.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
unavailableConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
0%
Confidence
Low confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score — from 0 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
0
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Sources
0
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
0%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: No coverage
Sentiment snapshot is not ready yet for this event. Background refresh will populate it shortly.
Outcome Leaderboards by Platform
Kalshi
Yes
4.1%
Polymarket
Yes
2.5%
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