Current Status
Live
Leading Outcome
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 93.8%
V2 BetaOptimized UI
Trade NowLive marketEnds Apr 17, 2027 (6mo)Updated 3d ago
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Live prediction market odds for "2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?". Jean-Luc Mélenchon is leading at 93.8%. The next most likely outcome is Marine Le Pen at 92.0%. Total volume is $519K across 47 active outcomes. We currently show 12 cross-platform pricing comparisons. Data sources: Polymarket, Kalshi. Expected resolution by Apr 17, 2027.
Leading Outcome
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
93.8%
Total Vol
$519K
Across 2 venues
Platforms
2
2 comparable
Best Spread
4725 bps
Arb opportunity
Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
$21K volumeauto_medium
93.8%
675 bps
Marine Le Pen
$60 volume
92.0%
50 bps
stale quote
douard Philippe
$614 volume
90.0%
50 bps
stale quote
Nathalie Arthaud
$8K volumeauto_medium
88.0%
1100 bps
ric Zemmour
$18K volumeauto_medium
87.5%
550 bps
Fabien Roussel
$5K volume
80.5%
150 bps
stale quote
David Lisnard
$22K volume
77.5%
—
Jean Lassalle
Volume n/a
76.5%
—
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?". Jean-Luc Mélenchon is leading at 93.8%. The next most likely outcome is Marine Le Pen at 92.0%. Total volume is $519K across 47 active outcomes. We currently show 12 cross-platform pricing comparisons. Data sources: Polymarket, Kalshi. Expected resolution by Apr 17, 2027.
Expected resolution date: Apr 17, 2027.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Matching labels identify likely equivalent outcomes, but settlement rules may differ. A “Rules unverified” label means the comparison is not a verified arbitrage opportunity.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
unavailableConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
0%
Confidence
Low confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score — from 0 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
0
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Sources
0
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
0%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: No coverage
Sentiment snapshot is not ready yet for this event. Background refresh will populate it shortly.
Outcome Leaderboards by Platform
Polymarket
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
93.8%
Marine Le Pen
91.5%
douard Philippe
89.5%
Nathalie Arthaud
88.0%
Kalshi
Marine Le Pen
92.0%
douard Philippe
90.0%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
87.0%
ric Zemmour
83.0%
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