The Prediction Markets

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Starts in 182 daysKickoff
Traded
$614K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 93.1%

Next is Marine Le Pen at 92.8%. The venues differ most on Fabien Roussel (Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 79%), a 7.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Jean-Luc MélenchonArb
93.1%
Polymarket 92.5%polled, 38s agoKalshi 95%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 92.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92.9¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 92.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 95¢ nets 210 bps before fees.

Marine Le PenArb
92.8%
Polymarket 92%polled, 38s agoKalshi 95%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 93¢ and selling on Kalshi at 95¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Nathalie Arthaud
86.4%
Polymarket 86.5%polled, 38s agoKalshi 86%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nathalie Arthaud
Last price
86.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nathalie Arthaud
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 86¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 88¢.

Fabien RousselArb
84.6%
Polymarket 86.5%polled, 38s agoKalshi 79%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fabien Roussel
Last price
86.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fabien Roussel
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 82¢ and selling on Polymarket at 85¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

douard PhilippeArb
84%
Polymarket 83%polled, 38s agoKalshi 87%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$619
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 85¢ and selling on Kalshi at 86¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Raphaël GlucksmannArb
83.3%
Polymarket 84%polled, 38s agoKalshi 81%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 82¢ and selling on Polymarket at 83¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

David Lisnard
80.5%
Polymarket 80.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
ric Zemmour
77%
Polymarket 76%polled, 38s agoKalshi 80%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 76¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 77¢.

Jean Lassalle
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jean Lassalle
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
67.3%
Polymarket 67%polled, 38s agoKalshi 68%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$194
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 62¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 69¢.

Show 37 more outcomes
Bruno Retailleau
53.1%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 38s agoKalshi 55%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 49¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 55¢.

Dominique de Villepin
31.8%
Polymarket 31%polled, 38s agoKalshi 34%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 28¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 32¢.

Marine Tondelier
27.8%
Polymarket 28%polled, 38s agoKalshi 27%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 27¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 28¢.

Gabriel Attal
25.3%
Polymarket 25%polled, 38s agoKalshi 26%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 23¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 27¢.

François HollandeArb
22.4%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 38s agoKalshi 25%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 22¢ and selling on Kalshi at 24¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

François Ruffin
20.4%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 38s agoKalshi 23%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 17¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 23¢.

Sarah Knafo
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Knafo
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Polymarket
François AsselineauArb
12.1%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 38s agoKalshi 14%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Asselineau
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Asselineau
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$338
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 13¢ and selling on Kalshi at 14¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Delphine Batho
9.7%
Polymarket 9.7%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Delphine Batho
Last price
9.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.5¢
Sell Yes
8.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$952 (9.52x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Matthieu Pigasse
9.6%
Polymarket 9.6%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 11.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $862 (8.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matthieu Pigasse
Last price
9.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.6¢
Sell Yes
7.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$862 (8.62x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
lisabeth Borne
6.8%
Polymarket 6.8%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
lisabeth Borne
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
6.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bernard CazeneuveArb
6.5%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 38s agoKalshi 10%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bernard Cazeneuve
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bernard Cazeneuve
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$624
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 7¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Juan Branco
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Juan Branco
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jordan Bardella
6.3%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 38s agoKalshi 3%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
6.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Michel Barnier
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michel Barnier
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
6.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bally Bagayoko
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bally Bagayoko
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yaël Braun-Pivet
5.9%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yaël Braun-Pivet
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michel-Edouard Leclerc
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michel-Edouard Leclerc
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jean-Michel Fauvergue
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Michel Fauvergue
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jean Castex
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean Castex
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gérald Darmanin
5.3%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 38s agoKalshi 10%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gérald Darmanin
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gérald Darmanin
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.2¢.

Olivier Faure
5.3%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 38s agoKalshi 5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivier Faure
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivier Faure
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$543
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.2¢.

Sébastien Lecornu
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
François Bayrou
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Bayrou
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Carole Delga
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carole Delga
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Manuel Bompard
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Manuel Bompard
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Philippe de Villiers
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Philippe de Villiers
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Karim Bouamrane
4.4%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 38s agoKalshi 3%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Karim Bouamrane
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Karim Bouamrane
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$365
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Mathilde Panot
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mathilde Panot
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Teddy Riner
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Teddy Riner
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jérôme GuedjArb
4.1%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 38s agoKalshi 5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jérôme Guedj
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jérôme Guedj
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5¢ nets 50 bps before fees.

Manuel Valls
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Manuel Valls
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Valérie Pécresse
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Valérie Pécresse
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Clémentine Autain
3.7%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 38s agoKalshi 8%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clémentine Autain
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Clémentine Autain
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.8¢.

Laurent Wauquiez
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Laurent Wauquiez
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Xavier Bertrand
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xavier Bertrand
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ségolène Royal
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ségolène Royal
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Fabien Roussel on Kalshi at 82¢, sell on Polymarket at 85¢ (300 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Apr 17, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 30, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Conseil constitutionnel
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Apr 17, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 30, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon
  • Marine Le Pen
  • Nathalie Arthaud

Live prices for Jean-Luc Mélenchon

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?". Jean-Luc Mélenchon leads at 93.1%. Next is Marine Le Pen at 92.8%. $614K has traded across 47 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 30, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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