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What the markets expect
Abbott, 1+ pts 64%
Next is Abbott, 3+ pts at 51%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
1 of 20 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Abbott, 1+ pts64%Not listed64%62¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 3 h ago64¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $156 (1.56x)Abbott, 1+ pts64%Kalshi 64%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Abbott, 1+ pts
64%
Not listed
64%
62¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
64¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Abbott, 1+ pts
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Abbott, 1+ pts
- Last price
- 64%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 62¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $9K
Abbott, 3+ pts51%Not listed51%49¢ bid, 51¢ asklive, 3 h ago51¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $196 (1.96x)Abbott, 3+ pts51%Kalshi 51%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Abbott, 3+ pts
51%
Not listed
51%
49¢ bid, 51¢ ask
live, 3 h ago
51¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Abbott, 3+ pts
51%
Kalshi 51%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Abbott, 3+ pts
- Price
- 51%
- As of
- Live feed, 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 51¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $196 (1.96x)
- Volume
- $54K
Abbott, 5+ pts32%Not listed32%32¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 3 h ago33¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $303 (3.03x)Abbott, 5+ pts32%Kalshi 32%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Abbott, 5+ pts
32%
Not listed
32%
32¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
33¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Abbott, 5+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Abbott, 5+ pts
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $7K
Abbott, 6+ pts27%Not listed27%27¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 3 h ago28¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $357 (3.57x)Abbott, 6+ pts27%Kalshi 27%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Abbott, 6+ pts
27%
Not listed
27%
27¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
28¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Abbott, 6+ pts
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Abbott, 6+ pts
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $50K
Abbott 3-6%23%23%22¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed24¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Abbott 3-6%23%Polymarket 23%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Abbott 3-6%
23%
23%
22¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
24¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Abbott 3-6%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Abbott 3-6%
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $3K
Hinojosa 0-3%18.6%18.6%18.1¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed19¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $526 (5.26x)Hinojosa 0-3%18.6%Polymarket 18.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Hinojosa 0-3%
18.6%
18.6%
18.1¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
19¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Hinojosa 0-3%
18.6%
Polymarket 18.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Hinojosa 0-3%
- Last price
- 18.6%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 18.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $1K
Abbott, 9+ pts17%Not listed17%15¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 3 h ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Abbott, 9+ pts17%Kalshi 17%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Abbott, 9+ pts
17%
Not listed
17%
15¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Abbott, 9+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Abbott, 9+ pts
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $22K
Hinojosa, 3+ pts16%Not listed16%15¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 3 h ago17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Hinojosa, 3+ pts16%Kalshi 16%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Hinojosa, 3+ pts
16%
Not listed
16%
15¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Hinojosa, 3+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hinojosa, 3+ pts
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $15K
Abbott 0-3%14%14%13¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Abbott 0-3%14%Polymarket 14%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Abbott 0-3%
14%
14%
13¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Abbott 0-3%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Abbott 0-3%
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $2K
Abbott 6-9%13%13%12¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed14¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Abbott 6-9%13%Polymarket 13%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Abbott 6-9%
13%
13%
12¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
14¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Abbott 6-9%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Abbott 6-9%
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $6K
Show 10 more outcomesHide 10 outcomes
Abbott 9-12%10.5%10.5%10¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed11¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Abbott 9-12%10.5%Polymarket 10.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Abbott 9-12%
10.5%
10.5%
10¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
11¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Abbott 9-12%
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Abbott 9-12%
- Last price
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $3K
Hinojosa 3-6%8.9%8.9%7.9¢ bid, 9.9¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed9.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)Hinojosa 3-6%8.9%Polymarket 8.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Hinojosa 3-6%
8.9%
8.9%
7.9¢ bid, 9.9¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
9.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Hinojosa 3-6%
8.9%
Polymarket 8.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Hinojosa 3-6%
- Last price
- 8.9%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 7.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,010 (10.1x)
- Volume
- $828
Hinojosa 6%+7.8%7.8%5.7¢ bid, 9.9¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed9.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)Hinojosa 6%+7.8%Polymarket 7.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Hinojosa 6%+
7.8%
7.8%
5.7¢ bid, 9.9¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
9.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Hinojosa 6%+
7.8%
Polymarket 7.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Hinojosa 6%+
- Last price
- 7.8%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,010 (10.1x)
- Volume
- $1K
Abbott, 15+ pts7%Not listed7%0.4¢ bid, 9.4¢ askpolled, 3 h ago9.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)Abbott, 15+ pts7%Kalshi 7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Abbott, 15+ pts
7%
Not listed
7%
0.4¢ bid, 9.4¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
9.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Abbott, 15+ pts
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Abbott, 15+ pts
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,064 (10.6x)
- Volume
- $680
Abbott, 12+ pts6%Not listed6%3.3¢ bid, 8.7¢ askpolled, 3 h ago8.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)Abbott, 12+ pts6%Kalshi 6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Abbott, 12+ pts
6%
Not listed
6%
3.3¢ bid, 8.7¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
8.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Abbott, 12+ pts
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Abbott, 12+ pts
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,149 (11.5x)
- Volume
- $7K
Abbott, 18+ pts4.6%Not listed4.6%— bid, 7.2¢ askpolled, 3 h ago7.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)Abbott, 18+ pts4.6%Kalshi 4.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Abbott, 18+ pts
4.6%
Not listed
4.6%
— bid, 7.2¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
7.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Abbott, 18+ pts
4.6%
Kalshi 4.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Abbott, 18+ pts
- Last price
- 4.6%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,389 (13.9x)
- Volume
- $435
Abbott 12-15%4.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 7.9¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed7.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)Abbott 12-15%4.5%Polymarket 4.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Abbott 12-15%
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 7.9¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
7.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Abbott 12-15%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Abbott 12-15%
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,266 (12.7x)
- Volume
- $470
Abbott 18%+4.4%4.4%1.1¢ bid, 7.6¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed7.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)Abbott 18%+4.4%Polymarket 4.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Abbott 18%+
4.4%
4.4%
1.1¢ bid, 7.6¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
7.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Abbott 18%+
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Abbott 18%+
- Last price
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,316 (13.2x)
- Volume
- $394
Abbott, 21+ pts3%Not listed3%— bid, 6.4¢ askpolled, 3 h ago6.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)Abbott, 21+ pts3%Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Abbott, 21+ pts
3%
Not listed
3%
— bid, 6.4¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
6.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Abbott, 21+ pts
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Abbott, 21+ pts
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,563 (15.6x)
- Volume
- $384
Abbott 15-18%2.1%2.1%1.1¢ bid, 3.1¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed3.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)Abbott 15-18%2.1%Polymarket 2.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Abbott 15-18%
2.1%
2.1%
1.1¢ bid, 3.1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
3.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Abbott 15-18%
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Abbott 15-18%
- Last price
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,226 (32.3x)
- Volume
- $175
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Abbott, 1+ pts
- Abbott, 3+ pts
- Abbott, 5+ pts
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Abbott, 1+ pts for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Texas Governor margin of victory". Abbott, 1+ pts leads at 64%. Next is Abbott, 3+ pts at 51%. $183K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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