Home›🤖ai_tech›When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Leading Outcome
Before Jul 1, 2028 68.0%
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Live marketEnds Jan 1, 2027 (2mo)Updated 1d ago
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Live prediction market odds for "When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?". Before Jul 1, 2028 is leading at 68.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before Jan 1, 2029 at 64.0%. Total volume is $37.2M across 11 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi, Polymarket. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2027.

Leading Outcome
Before Jul 1, 2028
68.0%
Total Vol
$37.2M
Across 2 venues
Platforms
2
0 comparable
Best Spread
0 bps
Arb opportunity

Current Odds

Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Before Jul 1, 2028
$33K volume
68.0%
—
Before Jan 1, 2029
$40K volume
64.0%
—
Before Jan 1, 2028
$61K volume
55.0%
—
Before Jul 1, 2027
$1.6M volume
47.0%
—
Before Apr 1, 2027
$822K volume
31.0%
—
Before Jul 15, 2026
$235K volume
23.0%
—
Yes
$14.3M volume
17.5%
—
Before Jan 1, 2027
$3.1M volume
11.0%
—

How This Market Resolves

Live prediction market odds for "When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?". Before Jul 1, 2028 is leading at 68.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before Jan 1, 2029 at 64.0%. Total volume is $37.2M across 11 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi, Polymarket. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2027.

Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027.

FAQ

What does spread mean here?

Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.

Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?

Matching labels identify likely equivalent outcomes, but settlement rules may differ. A “Rules unverified” label means the comparison is not a verified arbitrage opportunity.

How fresh is this data?

Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.

News Sentiment Signal

unavailable

Confidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.

0%
Confidence
Low confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score — from 0 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
0
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Sources
0
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
0%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: No coverage
Sentiment snapshot is not ready yet for this event. Background refresh will populate it shortly.

Outcome Leaderboards by Platform

Kalshi
Before Jul 1, 2028
68.0%
Before Jan 1, 2029
64.0%
Before Jan 1, 2028
55.0%
Before Jul 1, 2027
47.0%
Polymarket
Yes
17.5%

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