The Prediction Markets

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in November 2026?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

3 42.5%

Next is 4 at 19.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

3 42.5%4 19.5%5 15.1%3 13%6 7.8%7+ 2.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
3
42.5%
Polymarket 59%(42.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
3
Last price
59%
Fair, margin removed
42.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$387
Trade this on Polymarket
4
19.5%
Polymarket 27%(19.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
4
Last price
27%
Fair, margin removed
19.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Polymarket
5
15.1%
Polymarket 21%(15.1% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
5
Last price
21%
Fair, margin removed
15.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$269
Trade this on Polymarket
3
13%
Polymarket 18%(13% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
3
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
13%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$323
Trade this on Polymarket
6
7.8%
Polymarket 10.9%(7.8% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 20.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $478 (4.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
6
Last price
10.9%
Fair, margin removed
7.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
20.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$478 (4.78x)
Volume
$195
Trade this on Polymarket
7+
2.1%
Polymarket 3%(2.1% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
7+
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$197
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "# of ChatGPT Outage Days in November 2026?". 3 leads at 42.5%. Next is 4 at 19.5%. $2K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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