The Prediction Markets

# of Packages Pushed by Figure's F.03 Robots by May 21, 10 PM ET?

Closed
May 21, 2026
Traded
$128K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 21, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
200,000+
83.5%
Polymarket 83.5%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
200,000+
Last price
83.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Polymarket
225,000+
74.5%
Polymarket 74.5%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
225,000+
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
250,000+
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
250,000+
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: youtube.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 200,000+
  • 225,000+
  • 250,000+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "# of Packages Pushed by Figure's F.03 Robots by May 21, 10 PM ET?". 200,000+ last traded at 83.5%. Next is 225,000+ at 74.5%. $128K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 21, 2026.

Figure’s official livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak shows a team of fully autonomous F.03 humanoid robots sorting small packages onto a conveyor. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the package counter in the specified livestream displays a figure equal to or higher than the specified figure at any point prior to May 21, 2026, 10:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the official Figure livestream is interrupted before the end of the 8-hour period, this market will remain open until the period can be evaluated using a continuation livestream or official statements from Figure Robotics, Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett), or the official Figure X account. If Figure officially ends the demonstration before the 8-hour period elapses, resolution will be based on the highest visible package count prior to the end of the demonstration. The primary resolution source for this market will be Figure's official livestream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak); however, official statements from Figure Robotics, @adcock_brett, the official Figure X account, or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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