The Prediction Markets

#1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 2?

Closes
Nov 10, 2026, in 5 days
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
17 min ago
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What the markets expect

DeepSeek 92%

Next is Google at 3.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

DeepSeek 92%Google 3.2%Meta 0.5%MiniMax 0.5%Nvidia 0.5%7 others 3.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 17 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
DeepSeek
92%
Polymarket 97%(92% fair)polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
97%
Fair, margin removed
92%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$894
Trade this on Polymarket
Google
3.2%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$302
Trade this on Polymarket
Meta
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$204
Trade this on Polymarket
MiniMax
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$396
Trade this on Polymarket
Nvidia
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$290
Trade this on Polymarket
OpenAI
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$214
Trade this on Polymarket
Qwen
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Qwen
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$262
Trade this on Polymarket
Tencent
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$316
Trade this on Polymarket
Xiaomi
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$374
Trade this on Polymarket
Z.ai
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Polymarket
Anthropic
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$402
Trade this on Polymarket
xAI
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
xAI
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: openrouter.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • DeepSeek
  • Google
  • Meta

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "#1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 2?". DeepSeek leads at 92%. Next is Google at 3.2%. $4K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of November 2 to November 8, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of November 2 to November 8, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of November 2 to November 8, 2026 once the figures for the week of November 9, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of November 9, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on November 13, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of November 2 to November 8, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of November 2 to November 8, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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