The Prediction Markets

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 24?

Closed
Apr 24, 2026
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 24, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 182 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
ChatGPT
99.6%
Polymarket 100%polled, 4372 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
ChatGPT
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 182 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Claude by Anthropic
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4372 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Claude by Anthropic
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 182 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Polymarket
Freecash - Get Paid Real Money
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4372 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Freecash - Get Paid Real Money
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 182 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$409
Trade this on Polymarket
Google
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4372 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 182 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$531
Trade this on Polymarket
Google Gemini
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4372 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google Gemini
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 182 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$516
Trade this on Polymarket
Meta AI - Assistant & Glasses
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4372 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta AI - Assistant & Glasses
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 182 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Polymarket
Netflix Game Controller
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4372 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Netflix Game Controller
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 182 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$465
Trade this on Polymarket
Threads
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4372 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Threads
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 182 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$587
Trade this on Polymarket
TurboTax: File Your Tax Return
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4372 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
TurboTax: File Your Tax Return
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 182 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$402
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • ChatGPT
  • Claude by Anthropic
  • Freecash - Get Paid Real Money

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 24?". ChatGPT last traded at 99.6%. Next is Claude by Anthropic at 0.1%. $20K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 24, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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