The Prediction Markets

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?

Closes
Oct 23, 2026, in 1 day
Traded
$11K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace 38.2%

Next is Muse from Meta at 21%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace
38.2%
Polymarket 38.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 72.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $138 (1.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace
Last price
38.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
72.4¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$138 (1.38x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Polymarket
Muse from Meta
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Muse from Meta
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
ChatGPT
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
ChatGPT
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$560
Trade this on Polymarket
TikTok Pro - Events
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
TikTok Pro - Events
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$212
Trade this on Polymarket
Claude by Anthropic
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Claude by Anthropic
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Google Gemini
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google Gemini
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$266
Trade this on Polymarket
KICK - Live Streaming
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
KICK - Live Streaming
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$416
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace
  • Muse from Meta
  • ChatGPT

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?". Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace leads at 38.2%. Next is Muse from Meta at 21%. $11K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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