The Prediction Markets

#1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Nov 14, 2026?

Closes
Nov 9, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$9K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
18 min ago
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What the markets expect

Choosin' Texas 80.3%

Next is Babydoll at 0.8%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Choosin' Texas 80.3%Babydoll 0.8%BbY WOW 0.8%BE HER 0.8%Been By Now 0.8%23 others 16.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 18 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Choosin' Texas
80.3%
Polymarket 98.4%(80.9% fair)polled, 18 min agoKalshi 99%(78.6% fair)polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley
Last price
98.4%
Fair, margin removed
80.9%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
99.1¢
Sell Yes
97.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Choosin' Texas
Last price
99%
Fair, margin removed
78.6%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$445
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 18 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 98¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 99.1¢.

Babydoll
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Babydoll
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
BbY WOW
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
BbY WOW
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
BE HER
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
BE HER
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
Been By Now
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Been By Now
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$248
Trade this on Kalshi
Boston
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Boston
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$248
Trade this on Kalshi
Disturbia
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Disturbia
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Kalshi
Dracula
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dracula
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Kalshi
Earrings
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Earrings
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
Ghostbusters
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ghostbusters
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 18 more outcomes
hate that i made you love me
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
hate that i made you love me
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Kalshi
I Just Might
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Just Might
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
JADED
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
JADED
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
LOVING LIFE AGAIN
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
LOVING LIFE AGAIN
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
Midnight Sun
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Midnight Sun
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Monster Mash
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Monster Mash
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicole Kidman
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicole Kidman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Kalshi
Psycho Killer
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Psycho Killer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Kalshi
Risk It All
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risk It All
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Somebody's Watching Me
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Somebody's Watching Me
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$108
Trade this on Kalshi
Spooky, Scary Skeletons
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spooky, Scary Skeletons
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Kalshi
stupid song
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
stupid song
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Kalshi
This Is Halloween
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
This Is Halloween
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Kalshi
HOUSEWIFE
0.6%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 18 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Housewife - Tate McRae
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$488
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
HOUSEWIFE
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$93
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 18 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.4¢.

expectations
0.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 18 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Expectations - Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$257
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
expectations
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$265
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 18 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Lies
0.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 18 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lies - Zach Bryan Featuring Lana Del Rey
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$257
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lies
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$165
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 18 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Patient Zero
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 18 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Patient Zero - Taylor Swift
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$503
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Patient Zero
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$165
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 18 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Thriller
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 18 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thriller - Michael Jackson
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$258
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Thriller
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 18 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the Billboard chart dated the named week. Polymarket labels mix 'Album - Artist' and 'Artist - Album'; a label is linked only when exactly one reading matches a Kalshi title.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 11, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 9, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Billboard
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the Billboard chart dated the named week. Polymarket labels mix 'Album - Artist' and 'Artist - Album'; a label is linked only when exactly one reading matches a Kalshi title.
  • Trading closes Nov 11, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 9, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Choosin' Texas
  • Babydoll
  • BbY WOW

Live prices for Choosin' Texas

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "#1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Nov 14, 2026?". Choosin' Texas leads at 80.3%. Next is Babydoll at 0.8%. $9K has traded across 28 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 9, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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