The Prediction Markets

#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 19?

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$414K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.7% 99%

Next is Above 4.1% at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 3.7%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.7%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.1%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.1%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.4%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.4%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.6%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.6%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.7%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.7%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16.5%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16.5%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.7%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.7%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.9%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.9%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.8%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.8%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.0%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.0%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 29 more outcomes
Above 16.6%
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16.6%
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 17.7%
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 17.7%
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 18.1%
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.1%
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.4%
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.4%
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 18.4%
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.4%
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Google
57%
Polymarket 57%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 18.0%
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.0%
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 18.7%
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.7%
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
OpenAI
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 19.0%
19.5%
Kalshi 14%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 27%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.0%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.0%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.3%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.3%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.1%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.1%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.6%
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.6%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.9%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.9%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.8%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.8%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20.1%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20.1%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20.8%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20.8%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 21.2%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 21.2%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 21.8%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 21.8%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
DeepSeek
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anthropic
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$635
Trade this on Polymarket
Meta
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$666
Trade this on Polymarket
MiniMax
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Polymarket
Nvidia
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$728
Trade this on Polymarket
Qwen
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Qwen
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$777
Trade this on Polymarket
Tencent
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$531
Trade this on Polymarket
xAI
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
xAI
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$605
Trade this on Polymarket
Xiaomi
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$536
Trade this on Polymarket
Z.ai
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$466
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: openrouter.ai
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: OpenRouter - AI Market Share

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.7%
  • Above 4.1%
  • Above 4.4%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 3.7% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 19?". Above 3.7% leads at 99%. Next is Above 4.1% at 99%. $414K has traded across 39 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the second highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 26, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 26, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 30, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 2nd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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