The Prediction Markets

2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$167K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Democrats 8-10% 24.5%

Next is Democrats 10-12% at 22.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Democrats 8-10% 24.5%Democrats 10-12% 22.6%Democrats 6-8% 15.2%Democrats 12-14% 10.7%Democrats 4-6% 7.9%8 others 19.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Democrats 8-10%
24.5%
Polymarket 25%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrats 8-10%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrats 10-12%
22.6%
Polymarket 23%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrats 10-12%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrats 6-8%
15.2%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrats 6-8%
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrats 12-14%
10.7%
Polymarket 11%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 11.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $855 (8.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrats 12-14%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.7¢
Sell Yes
10.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$855 (8.55x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrats 4-6%
7.9%
Polymarket 8%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrats 4-6%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrats 14-16%
3.9%
Polymarket 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrats 14-16%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrats 0-2%
3.2%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrats 0-2%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrats 16%+
3.2%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrats 16%+
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrats 2-4%
2.6%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrats 2-4%
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republicans 0-2%
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republicans 0-2%
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
Republicans 2-4%
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republicans 2-4%
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republicans 4-6%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republicans 4-6%
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republicans 6%+
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republicans 6%+
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: history.house.gov

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Democrats 8-10%
  • Democrats 10-12%
  • Democrats 6-8%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory". Democrats 8-10% leads at 24.5%. Next is Democrats 10-12% at 22.6%. $167K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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