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ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Above 10.5% 99%
Next is Above 13.8% at 95%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 10.5%99%Not listed99%9¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo askAbove 10.5%99%Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Above 10.5%
99%
Not listed
99%
9¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Above 10.5%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 10.5%
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- Volume
- $10
Above 13.8%95%Not listed95%9¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 1 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Above 13.8%95%Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 13.8%
95%
Not listed
95%
9¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 13.8%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 13.8%
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $1K
Above 12.3%92%Not listed92%21¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 1 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Above 12.3%92%Kalshi 92%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Above 12.3%
92%
Not listed
92%
21¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Above 12.3%
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 12.3%
- Last price
- 92%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $4K
Above 14.3%91%Not listed91%10¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 1 min ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Above 14.3%91%Kalshi 91%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Above 14.3%
91%
Not listed
91%
10¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Above 14.3%
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 14.3%
- Last price
- 91%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $10
Above 17.4%90%Not listed90%9¢ bid, — askpolled, 2 min agoNo askAbove 17.4%90%Kalshi 90%polled, 2 min ago
Above 17.4%
90%
Not listed
90%
9¢ bid, — ask
polled, 2 min ago
No ask
Above 17.4%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 17.4%
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- Volume
- $3K
Above 19.6%88%Not listed88%8¢ bid, — askpolled, 2 min agoNo askAbove 19.6%88%Kalshi 88%polled, 2 min ago
Above 19.6%
88%
Not listed
88%
8¢ bid, — ask
polled, 2 min ago
No ask
Above 19.6%
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 19.6%
- Last price
- 88%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- Volume
- $511
Above 5.4%87%Not listed87%74¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo askAbove 5.4%87%Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min ago
Above 5.4%
87%
Not listed
87%
74¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Above 5.4%
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min ago
Google86%86%77¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed95¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Google86%Polymarket 86%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Google
86%
86%
77¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
95¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Google
86%
Polymarket 86%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Last price
- 86%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 77¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $227
Above 13.2%83%Not listed83%10¢ bid, 96¢ askpolled, 1 min ago96¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Above 13.2%83%Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Above 13.2%
83%
Not listed
83%
10¢ bid, 96¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
96¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Above 13.2%
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 13.2%
- Last price
- 83%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $3K
Above 18.2%78%Not listed78%7¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 2 min ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Above 18.2%78%Kalshi 78%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Above 18.2%
78%
Not listed
78%
7¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Above 18.2%
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 18.2%
- Last price
- 78%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $1K
Show 29 more outcomesHide 29 outcomes
Above 5.6%73%Not listed73%59¢ bid, 87¢ askpolled, 1 min ago87¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $115 (1.15x)Above 5.6%73%Kalshi 73%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Above 5.6%
73%
Not listed
73%
59¢ bid, 87¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
87¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Above 5.6%
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 5.6%
- Last price
- 73%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
Above 5.7%55%Not listed55%8¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 1 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Above 5.7%55%Kalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 5.7%
55%
Not listed
55%
8¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 5.7%
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 5.7%
- Last price
- 55%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $500
Above 18.6%54.5%Not listed54.5%39¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, 2 min ago70¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $143 (1.43x)Above 18.6%54.5%Kalshi 54.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Above 18.6%
54.5%
Not listed
54.5%
39¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
70¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Above 18.6%
54.5%
Kalshi 54.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 18.6%
- Last price
- 54.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
Above 4.8%50%Not listed50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askAbove 4.8%50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Above 4.8%
50%
Not listed
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Above 4.8%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Above 5.1%50%Not listed50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askAbove 5.1%50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Above 5.1%
50%
Not listed
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Above 5.1%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Above 5.3%50%Not listed50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askAbove 5.3%50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Above 5.3%
50%
Not listed
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Above 5.3%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Above 6.3%50%Not listed50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askAbove 6.3%50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Above 6.3%
50%
Not listed
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Above 6.3%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Above 18.1%48.5%Not listed48.5%— bid, 97¢ askpolled, 1 min ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Above 18.1%48.5%Kalshi 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Above 18.1%
48.5%
Not listed
48.5%
— bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Above 18.1%
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 18.1%
- Last price
- 48.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
Above 5.8%42%Not listed42%8¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 1 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Above 5.8%42%Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 5.8%
42%
Not listed
42%
8¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 5.8%
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 5.8%
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $500
Above 6.0%40%Not listed40%5¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 1 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Above 6.0%40%Kalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Above 6.0%
40%
Not listed
40%
5¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Above 6.0%
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.0%
- Last price
- 40%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $5
Above 19.1%40%Not listed40%10¢ bid, 40¢ askpolled, 2 min ago40¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $250 (2.50x)Above 19.1%40%Kalshi 40%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Above 19.1%
40%
Not listed
40%
10¢ bid, 40¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
40¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Above 19.1%
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 19.1%
- Last price
- 40%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 40¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $250 (2.50x)
- Volume
- $22
Above 18.9%33.5%Not listed33.5%18¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 2 min ago49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Above 18.9%33.5%Kalshi 33.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Above 18.9%
33.5%
Not listed
33.5%
18¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Above 18.9%
33.5%
Kalshi 33.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 18.9%
- Last price
- 33.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
Above 19.4%33%Not listed33%5¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 2 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Above 19.4%33%Kalshi 33%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Above 19.4%
33%
Not listed
33%
5¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Above 19.4%
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 19.4%
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $503
Above 14.9%26%Not listed26%9¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 1 min ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Above 14.9%26%Kalshi 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Above 14.9%
26%
Not listed
26%
9¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Above 14.9%
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 14.9%
- Last price
- 26%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $1K
Above 20.0%26%Not listed26%3¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 2 min ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Above 20.0%26%Kalshi 26%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Above 20.0%
26%
Not listed
26%
3¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Above 20.0%
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 20.0%
- Last price
- 26%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $500
Above 16.3%18.5%Not listed18.5%6¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 1 min ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Above 16.3%18.5%Kalshi 18.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Above 16.3%
18.5%
Not listed
18.5%
6¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Above 16.3%
18.5%
Kalshi 18.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 16.3%
- Last price
- 18.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
Above 15.5%14%Not listed14%13¢ bid, 92¢ askpolled, 1 min ago92¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $109 (1.09x)Above 15.5%14%Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Above 15.5%
14%
Not listed
14%
13¢ bid, 92¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
92¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Above 15.5%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 15.5%
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 92¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
- Volume
- $1K
Z.ai12.8%12.8%0.4¢ bid, 25.2¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed25.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $397 (3.97x)Z.ai12.8%Polymarket 12.8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 25.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $397 (3.97x)
Z.ai
12.8%
12.8%
0.4¢ bid, 25.2¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
25.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $397 (3.97x)
Z.ai
12.8%
Polymarket 12.8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 25.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $397 (3.97x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Z.ai
- Last price
- 12.8%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 25.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $397 (3.97x)
- Volume
- $53
Above 20.8%10%Not listed10%— bid, 91¢ askpolled, 2 min ago91¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $110 (1.10x)Above 20.8%10%Kalshi 10%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Above 20.8%
10%
Not listed
10%
— bid, 91¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
91¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Above 20.8%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 20.8%
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 91¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
- Volume
- $2K
OpenAI5.7%5.7%2.4¢ bid, 8.9¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed8.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)OpenAI5.7%Polymarket 5.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
OpenAI
5.7%
5.7%
2.4¢ bid, 8.9¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
8.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
OpenAI
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- OpenAI
- Last price
- 5.7%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,124 (11.2x)
- Volume
- $73
DeepSeek3.5%3.5%0.9¢ bid, 6.1¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed6.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)DeepSeek3.5%Polymarket 3.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
DeepSeek
3.5%
3.5%
0.9¢ bid, 6.1¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
6.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
DeepSeek
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- DeepSeek
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,639 (16.4x)
- Volume
- $47
Anthropic0.7%0.7%0.3¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Anthropic0.7%Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Anthropic
0.7%
0.7%
0.3¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Anthropic
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Anthropic
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $196
Meta0.5%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Meta0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Meta
0.5%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Meta
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Meta
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $277
MiniMax0.5%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)MiniMax0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
MiniMax
0.5%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
MiniMax
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- MiniMax
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $282
Nvidia0.5%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Nvidia0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Nvidia
0.5%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Nvidia
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nvidia
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $277
Qwen0.5%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Qwen0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Qwen
0.5%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Qwen
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Qwen
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $277
Tencent0.5%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Tencent0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Tencent
0.5%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Tencent
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tencent
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $282
xAI0.5%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)xAI0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
xAI
0.5%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
xAI
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- xAI
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $277
Xiaomi0.5%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Xiaomi0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Xiaomi
0.5%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Xiaomi
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Xiaomi
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $277
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: openrouter.ai
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: OpenRouter - AI Market Share
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 10.5%
- Above 13.8%
- Above 12.3%
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Above 10.5% for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 9?". Above 10.5% leads at 99%. Next is Above 13.8% at 95%. $21K has traded across 39 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of November 9 to November 15, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of November 9 to November 15, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of November 9 to November 15, 2026 once the figures for the week of November 16, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of November 16, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on November 20, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of November 9 to November 15, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of November 9 to November 15, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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