The Prediction Markets

Anthropic closing share price on IPO day?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
9 min ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

120+ 29.5%

Next is 80 to $90 at 29%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 9 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
120+
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
120+
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Polymarket
80 to $90
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
80 to $90
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
90 to $100
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
90 to $100
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Polymarket
100 to $110
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
100 to $110
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Polymarket
110 to $120
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
110 to $120
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Polymarket
70
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
70
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$537
Trade this on Polymarket
No IPO by December 31, 2027
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
No IPO by December 31, 2027
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Polymarket
70 to $80
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
70 to $80
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 120+
  • 80 to $90
  • 90 to $100

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Anthropic closing share price on IPO day?". 120+ leads at 29.5%. Next is 80 to $90 at 29%. $1K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve according to the official closing price of Anthropic's Class A common stock on its first day of trading, as listed by its primary exchange. If the closing price falls exactly on a boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket (e.g., exactly $80.00 resolves to "$80 to $90"). For this market, an IPO means an underwritten, SEC-registered offering of newly issued shares of Anthropic’s Class A common stock sold to the public for cash under a registration statement on Form S-1 that the SEC has declared effective, where the shares have been approved for listing on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE American, the Nasdaq Stock Market, or Cboe BZX Exchange, and the offering has been priced, as shown by the first final prospectus filed with the SEC under Rule 424(b). Direct listings, mergers with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), reverse mergers, private placements, and listings outside the U.S. will not count. An IPO counts as completed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET if the pricing date stated on the cover of that first final prospectus is on or before that time, even if the prospectus is filed afterwards; if Anthropic’s registration statement has been declared effective by then but the prospectus has not yet been filed, this market will wait until 11:59 PM ET on the second business day after December 31, 2027 for it. Because this market depends on trading in Anthropic’s shares, if the IPO is priced but the shares never begin trading on the listing exchange, this market will resolve to “No IPO by December 31, 2027”. If Anthropic does not complete an IPO by then, or publicly announces a definitive agreement to be acquired by or merged into another company before completing one, this market will resolve to “No IPO by December 31, 2027”, regardless of whether that transaction is later completed or terminated. An IPO by a holding company formed to hold all or substantially all of Anthropic’s business for the purpose of the IPO counts as Anthropic’s IPO. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange's official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

See all ai_tech markets