The Prediction Markets

Anthropic IPO Date

Closes
Nov 14, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$4.4M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

Before Apr 1, 2027 96%

Next is Before Mar 1, 2027 at 93%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Apr 1, 2027
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Mar 1, 2027
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Mar 1, 2027
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Feb 1, 2027
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Feb 1, 2027
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2026
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$382K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$385K
Trade this on Kalshi
November 20
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 20
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$79K
Trade this on Polymarket
November 19
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 19
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
No IPO by November 30, 2026
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
No IPO by November 30, 2026
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
November 18
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 18
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
November 24
10.4%
Polymarket 10.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 10.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $926 (9.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 24
Last price
10.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
10.8¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$926 (9.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
November 23
8.1%
Polymarket 8.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 23
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Nov 16, 2026
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 16, 2026
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$267K
Trade this on Kalshi
November 17
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 17
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
November 25
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 25
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
November 16
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 16
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
November 13 or earlier
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 13 or earlier
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
November 30
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$942
Trade this on Polymarket
November 27
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 27
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the New York Times, ABC, Bloomberg

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Apr 1, 2027
  • Before Mar 1, 2027
  • Before Feb 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Apr 1, 2027 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Anthropic IPO Date". Before Apr 1, 2027 leads at 96%. Next is Before Mar 1, 2027 at 93%. $4.4M has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 14, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the date, in Eastern Time, that Anthropic launches its Initial Public Offering (IPO). An IPO refers to the first public sale of shares by the listed company on a recognized stock exchange. If no IPO occurs by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by November 30, 2026". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official listing page of the relevant exchange; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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