The Prediction Markets

Anthropic market share this week

Closes
Oct 26, 2026, in 3 days
Traded
$152K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.7% 99%

Next is Above 4.1% at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 3.7%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.7%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.1%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.1%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.4%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.4%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.6%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.6%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.7%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.7%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.9%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.9%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.8%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.8%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.0%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.0%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.4%
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.4%
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
DeepSeek
48.5%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 96.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
96.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
97.3¢
Sell Yes
96.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 12 more outcomes
OpenAI
38.4%
Polymarket 57%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 43%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 1.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$179
Trade this on Polymarket
Google
32.8%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 57%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 1.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$174
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 6.1%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.1%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tencent
0.4%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 1.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$374
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$531
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$265
Trade this on Polymarket
Meta
0.4%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 1.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$666
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Polymarket
Qwen
0.3%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Qwen
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Qwen
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$777
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Qwen
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$194
Trade this on Polymarket
MiniMax
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Polymarket
Z.ai
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$466
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$234
Trade this on Polymarket
Xiaomi
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$536
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$228
Trade this on Polymarket
Anthropic
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$635
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$222
Trade this on Polymarket
Nvidia
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$460
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$728
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Polymarket
xAI
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
xAI
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$940
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
xAI
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$605
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
xAI
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: openrouter.ai
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: OpenRouter - AI Market Share

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.7%
  • Above 4.1%
  • Above 4.4%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 3.7% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Anthropic market share this week". Above 3.7% leads at 99%. Next is Above 4.1% at 99%. $152K has traded across 22 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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