The Prediction Markets

Anthropic share of requests on Oct 10, 2026 (Vercel)

Closed
Oct 11, 2026
Traded
$7K
Venues
Kalshi
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on Oct 11, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 15 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 5.6%
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 376 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.6%
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.0%
73.5%
Kalshi 73.5%polled, 376 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.0%
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.7%
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 376 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.7%
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8.1%
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 376 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.1%
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$32
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8.4%
34.5%
Kalshi 34.5%polled, 376 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.4%
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.4%
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 376 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.4%
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8.9%
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 376 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.9%
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9.4%
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 376 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9.4%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11.2%
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 376 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.2%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboards - Labs

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 5.6%
  • Above 6.0%
  • Above 6.7%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Anthropic share of requests on Oct 10, 2026 (Vercel)". Above 5.6% last traded at 80%. Next is Above 6.0% at 73.5%. $7K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Oct 11, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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