The Prediction Markets

Anthropic share of spend on Oct 24, 2026 (Vercel)

Closes
Oct 25, 2026, in 20 hours
Traded
$8K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 30.7% 69%

Next is Above 35.1% at 51%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 30.7%
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 30.7%
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 35.1%
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 35.1%
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 32.9%
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 32.9%
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$209
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 35.7%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 35.7%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 36.6%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 36.6%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 38.6%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 38.6%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 39.1%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 39.1%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 42.8%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 42.8%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 43.4%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 43.4%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$784
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboards - Labs

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 30.7%
  • Above 35.1%
  • Above 32.9%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Anthropic share of spend on Oct 24, 2026 (Vercel)". Above 30.7% leads at 69%. Next is Above 35.1% at 51%. $8K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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