The Prediction Markets

Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on October 26?

Closes
Oct 26, 2026, in 2 days
Traded
$9K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

340 92%

Next is 345 at 69%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
340
92%
Polymarket 92%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
340
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
345
69%
Polymarket 69%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
345
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Polymarket
350
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
350
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
360
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
360
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
355
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
355
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 340
  • 345
  • 350

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on October 26?". 340 leads at 92%. Next is 345 at 69%. $9K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Apple (AAPL) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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