The Prediction Markets

"Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office

Closes
Dec 20, 2026, in 45 days
Traded
$11K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
5 h ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

360m-400m 30.7%

Next is 300m-340m at 23.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

360m-400m 30.7%300m-340m 23.4%400m+ 19.5%340m-360m 19%260m-300m 5.9%260m 1.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
360m-400m
30.7%
Polymarket 31.5%(30.7% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
360m-400m
Last price
31.5%
Fair, margin removed
30.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
300m-340m
23.4%
Polymarket 24%(23.4% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
300m-340m
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
23.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
400m+
19.5%
Polymarket 20%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
400m+
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$872
Trade this on Polymarket
340m-360m
19%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
340m-360m
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
260m-300m
5.9%
Polymarket 6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
260m-300m
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$416
Trade this on Polymarket
260m
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
260m
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$302
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 360m-400m
  • 300m-340m
  • 400m+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for ""Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office". 360m-400m leads at 30.7%. Next is 300m-340m at 23.4%. $11K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to how much "Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If "Avengers: Doomsday" is not released, or there is no final data available, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More culture markets

See all culture markets